Analysis on change trend of premature death probability of major chronic diseases in Panyu District of Guangzhou City from 2013-2020

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the death of major chronic diseases and the probability of premature death of residents in Panyu District of Guangzhou City from 2013 to 2020，evaluate the completion of the goal of reducing the probability of early death. Methods The death data of registered residents who died from 2013 to 2020 in Panyu District were collected，to analyze the death situation，premature death probability and average annual change rate of four major chronic diseases，and estimate the achievement of control targets in 2025 and 2030 for the probability of premature death from four major chronic diseases. Results From 2013 to 2020，the premature death probability caused by four major chronic diseases in Panyu District decreased from 14.01% to 11.26%，the average annual decline rate was 3.07%，the premature death probability of major chronic diseases in males was much higher than that in females，and the premature death probability in malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases was much higher than that in chronic respiratory and diabetes mellitus. Compared with 2015 baseline，at the current average annual rate of decline in the premature death probability，the malignant tumors，cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases，chronic respiratory diseases and total of four main chronic diseases in Panyu District can achieve control targets in 2025 and 2030. However，the risk of premature death in all gender and whole population diabetes and female malignant tumors are not up to the target. Conclusions Males are the key groups in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases in Panyu District，while malignant tumors，cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes are the key diseases of chronic disease prevention and control. It is necessary to improve the monitoring and intervention of related risk factors，actively carry out early diagnosis and early treatment，and reduce the premature death probability，so as to strive to successfully achieve the objectives of "China's medium and long term plan for the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases（2025） "and the outline of the "healthy China 2030" plan.

Key words: Major chronic diseases, Mortality, Premature death probability

CLC Number:

R181.3

YOU Na, LIANG Xiao-xian, RUAN Hui-hong. Analysis on change trend of premature death probability of major chronic diseases in Panyu District of Guangzhou City from 2013-2020. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(3): 355-358.

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