Analysis on epidemic trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2004 to 2023

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City,provide effective evidence for formulating prevention and control measures. Methods The data on notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2014 to 2023 were collected and analyzed using descriptive statistical software. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of change. Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 267 216 cases of Class A,B,C of notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Nantong City,with an average annual crude incidence rate of 359.61/100 000. There were a total of 453 reported deaths,with a mortality rate of 0.61/100 000. The top five reported infectious diseases by incidence were hand,foot and mouth disease（75 375 cases）,influenza（46 051 cases）,syphilis（31 644 cases）,tuberculosis（23 502 cases） and hepatitis B （13 482 cases）. The incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City showed a downward trend from 2014 to 2021（APC=-7.663,t=-1.548,P>0.05）,and a rapid upward trend from 2021 to 2023（APC=137.281,t=2.743,P<0.05）. The average annual incidence rate of men was generally higher than that of women（P<0.05）. The average incidence rate of all age groups showed a "high rise and fast fall with a long tail",and the average incidence rate of 0-<3 years old age group showed a rapid increase（APC=31.609,t=1.568,P>0.05）,3-<10 years old age group showed a rapid decrease（APC=-29.896,t=-5.485,P<0.05）,10-<45 years old age group showed a low and slow downward trend（APC=-2.8108,t=-2.149,P<0.05）,and 45-≥85 years old age group showed a low and slow increase trend（APC=2.952,t=3.854,P<0.05）. The seasonal index exhibited a bimodal distribution,with peaks in summer and winter and lows in spring and autumn,with a peak of 1.40 in June. Conclusion In recent years,the infectious diseases in Nantong City has a rising trend,and it is necessary to carry out key prevention and control measures on infectious diseases with high incidence rate,such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease and tuberculosis,as well as infectious diseases with rapid growth,such as influenza and syphilis,strengthen the vaccination of children <10 years old,enhance publicity and education,rectify the rural environment,and improve the epidemic prevention and control work.

Key words: Notifiable infectious diseases, Epidemic trends, Joinpoint regression analysis

CLC Number:

R181.3

MIAO Junfeng, ZHANG Wuhong, ZHOU Jie, ZHAO Enhui, WEI Ye. Analysis on epidemic trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2004 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(16): 2240-2244.

References

[1] BLOOM D E,CADARETTE D.Infectious disease threats in the twenty-first century:Strengthening the global response[J].Front Immunol,2019,10:549.
[2] BAKER R E,MAHMUD A S,MILLER I F,et al.Infectious disease in an era of global change[J].Nat Rev Microbiol,2022,20(4):193-205.
[3] 高艳春,沈凌,王丽苹,等.2015—2021年中国大陆法定传染病流行趋势分析[J].云南医药,2023,44(4):9-13.
[4] 汤家炜,汤其宁,朱时雨,等.2015—2019年中国法定传染病发病趋势分析[J].医学动物防制,2024,40(1):4-7.
[5] JIANG Y,DOU X,YAN C,et al.Epidemiological characteristics and trends of notifiable infectious diseases in China from 1986 to 2016[J].J Glob Health,2020,10(2):20803.
[6] 马萱,刘习羽,符云强,等.2004—2022年河南省法定传染病流行趋势分析[J].现代预防医学,2024,51(3):529-535.
[7] 高洪,王联君.2013—2022年北京市东城区法定传染病流行趋势分析[J].首都公共卫生,2023,17(5):288-291.
[8] 罗蕴娇,周卫东,刘菁.2008—2022年吉安市法定传染病疫情分析[J].应用预防医学,2024,30(1):36-40.
[9] 滕雪娇,邓舒,赵玉秋,等.安徽省2017—2021年法定传染病疫情分析[J].安徽预防医学杂志,2023,29(2):146-150.
[10] 赖绮华,罗龙辉,官陈平.2017—2021年福州市法定传染病流行特征分析[J].现代疾病预防控制,2023,34(9):655-658.
[11] 贾伟,李国星,赵俊君,等.2013—2022年河南省濮阳市法定传染病流行特征[J].现代疾病预防控制,2024,35(2):103-107.
[12] KLEIN S L.Hormonal and immunological mechanisms mediating sex differences in parasite infection[J].Parasite Immunol,2004,26(6-7):247-264.
[13] 傅天颖,吴昊澄,鲁琴宝,等.2023年浙江省法定传染病疫情分析[J].预防医学,2024,36(5):369-373.
[14] 刘艳,沈建勇,王雨达,等.2005—2023年湖州市法定传染病发病趋势分析[J].预防医学,2024,36(7):566-570.
[15] 张龙,冀慧方.上海市嘉定区2014—2018年法定传染病疫情分析[J].上海医药,2019,40(18):53-56.
[16] 韩姗珊,宫晨,邓革红,等.2016—2020年广西法定传染病流行特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2022,49(3):552-556.
[17] 张雯宇,贾芯芮,高昇,等.内蒙古自治区农村环境卫生对人群胃肠道症状影响[J].实用预防医学,2024,31(1):24-27.
[18] 谢植晖,谢金水.福建省沙县区2012—2021年农村环境卫生健康危害因素的监测结果与分析[J].中国卫生标准管理,2023,14(19):21-24.
[19] 唐龙,李盛鹏,陈清,等.2016—2020年汕头市农村环境卫生现况调查[J].职业与健康,2023,39(19):2681-2686.
[20] 张民,王佳成,许磊.2005—2021年上海市浦东新区学龄前儿童法定传染病流行情况分析[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2023,34(6):72-75.
[21] 翁熹君,王锐,王霄晔,等.2014—2016年全国学校(托幼机构)传染性突发公共卫生事件流行特征分析[J].疾病监测,2019,34(5):446-450.
[22] LI X,CHEN D,ZHANG Y,et al.Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong Province,China during 2005-2014[J].BMC Public Health,2021,21(1):1597.
[23] DONG Y,WANG L,BURGNER D P,et al.Infectious diseases in children and adolescents in China:Analysis of national surveillance data from 2008 to 2017[J].BMJ,2020,369:m1043.
[24] 田坤,行伟波.传染病的空间分布与治理效果研究——基于财政分权视角[J].经济管理学刊,2023,2(3):209-232.
[25] 孙明雷,王晨,赵娟,等.健康老龄化视角下老年人群重大疫情防控探析[J].中国社会医学杂志,2022,39(2):121-124.
[26] 黄铁牛,李建光,何晓璐,等.社区老年人健康素养水平调查及分析[J].中国卫生产业,2019,16(28):160-162.