Prevalence trend and estimated excess cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing from 2010 to 2023

Abstract

Abstract: Objective By analyzing the trend of hand,foot and mouth disease（HFMD） incidence in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing,to estimate epidemic period and excess incidence,and provide data support and decision-making basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The monthly cases of HFMD in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing were derived from the "China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention" from 2010 to 2023,the descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the disease,and the adjusted Serfling regression model was used to determine the epidemiological period and estimate the number of excess cases. Results From 2010 to 2023,a total of 45 745 cases of HFMD were reported in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing,with an average annual incidence rate of 272.10/100 000. The male-to-female sex ratio was 1.40∶1; the age of onset of the disease was mainly concentrated in the age group of 0-5 years old,with the highest incidence rate in the age group of 1-2 years old（annual average reported incidence rate of 9 797.73/100 000）. The population of the disease was mainly scattered children and preschool children. The area of onset of the disease was concentrated in the urban area. The coefficient of determination of the fit-adjusted Serfling regression model was 0.635,and the total number of HFMD epidemics from 2010 to 2023 was 89 months,with a cumulative excess of 21 310 cases,and the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the spring and summer（March to June） and the autumn and winter（September to January of the following year）. Conclusion Jiulongpo District in Chongqing should be the key prevention and control area of HFMD,and the relevant departments should further improve the diagnostic capacity,expand vaccination and targeted preventive measures,as well as combining the seasonal high incidence and the characteristics of the disease spectrum,so as to control the spread and prevalence of HFMD.

Key words: Hand, foot and mouth disease, Epidemic trend, Excess cases

CLC Number:

R181.8⁺1

ZHOU Huixian, DENG Chunyan, LI Runbing, LONG Qianjin. Prevalence trend and estimated excess cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing from 2010 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(16): 2245-2249.

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