Analysis of the incidence trend of chickenpox in the people aged 0-<35 years in Urumqi City from 2006 to 2020

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the incidence and trend of varicella in the population aged 0-<35 in Urumqi City，and evaluate the impact of age，period，and cohort on its long-term trend. Methods The surveillance data of infectious diseases in Urumqi City from 2006 to 2020 were used to fit the change trend of varicella incidence rate using the joinpoint regression model（JRM），and the age-period-cohort model（APC） was used to assess the age，period，and cohort effect. Results From 2006 to 2020，39 483 cases of varicella were reported among people aged 0-<35 years in Urumqi City，and the average annual reported incidence was 180.73/100 000，and the incidence in men was higher than that in women. The cases were mainly concentrated in people aged 0-<15 years，and the incidence was highest in people aged 5-<10 years. There was no significant change from 2006 to 2020，and the change trend of varicella incidence rate in different gender groups was not statistically significant（all P>0.05）. The age-specific incidence rate showed an upward trend at 10-<15，15-<20，25-<30 and 30-<35 years old（all P<0.05）. The high incidence age group was 5-<10 years old. The incidence rate was higher for men 15-<20 years old，and the incidence rate was higher for women 20-<35 years old. The period effect was taken as the reference group from 2011 to 2015，rising from 0.786（95%CI：0.667-0.927） from 2006 to 2010 to 1.530（95%CI：1.315-1.781） from 2016 and 2020. The overall cohort effect increased first and then decreased，reaching 2.305（95%CI：1.794-2.963） in the birth cohort group from 2004 to 2008 before starting to decline. Conclusion From 2006 to 2020，the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi City shows a M-type fluctuation trend. The people aged 0-<15 years are the high incidence group，of which the people aged 5-<10 years are the high-risk group，and the incidence rate of varicella aged 15-<20 years increases significantly. The incidence of men <20 years old is higher than that of women. The incidence of birth cohort showed an upward trend first and then a downward trend，and the cohort with a later time had a lower incidence risk. Therefore，varicella prevention and control should focus on high-risk age groups，strengthen vaccination，take into account gender differences and implement differentiated strategies；continuously pay attention to the changes of birth cohort，and timely adjust the prevention and control measures.

Key words: Chickenpox, Joinpoint regression model, Age-period-cohort model

CLC Number:

R181.81

Gulijiayina Aiken, Yimuran Kaisaier, CHEN Wei, ZHOU Yiran, ZHANG Yuhang, LU Yaoqin. Analysis of the incidence trend of chickenpox in the people aged 0-<35 years in Urumqi City from 2006 to 2020. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2026, 42(5): 653-657.

Figures/Tables 8

References 25

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项目	AAPC（%）	95%CI	t值	P
性别
男	1.700	-2.100~5.500	0.900	>0.05
女	2.900	-0.800~6.700	1.700	>0.05
年龄（岁）
0~<5	-1.900	-5.800~2.200	-1.000	>0.05
5~<10	-1.800	-5.200~1.700	-1.100	>0.05
10~<15	8.500	4.500~12.600	4.700	<0.01
15~<20	14.400	9.300~19.800	6.300	<0.01
20~<25	5.800	-0.400~12.300	2.000	>0.05
25~<30	8.900	4.400~13.600	4.300	<0.01
30~<35	12.900	7.300~18.800	5.100	<0.01
合计	2.200	-1.500~6.100	1.300	>0.05

项目	AAPC（%）	95%CI	t值	P
性别
男	1.700	-2.100~5.500	0.900	>0.05
女	2.900	-0.800~6.700	1.700	>0.05
年龄（岁）
0~<5	-1.900	-5.800~2.200	-1.000	>0.05
5~<10	-1.800	-5.200~1.700	-1.100	>0.05
10~<15	8.500	4.500~12.600	4.700	<0.01
15~<20	14.400	9.300~19.800	6.300	<0.01
20~<25	5.800	-0.400~12.300	2.000	>0.05
25~<30	8.900	4.400~13.600	4.300	<0.01
30~<35	12.900	7.300~18.800	5.100	<0.01
合计	2.200	-1.500~6.100	1.300	>0.05

零假设	男性		女性		总人群
零假设	χ²值	P	χ²值	P	χ²值	P
净漂移=0	33.831	<0.01	48.464	<0.01	41.550	<0.01
总年龄偏差=0	85.380	<0.01	68.260	<0.01	76.148	<0.01
总时期偏差=0	3.484	>0.05	1.299	>0.05	2.220	>0.05
总队列偏差=0	84.871	<0.01	60.308	<0.01	72.401	<0.01
全时期RR=1	38.763	<0.01	51.900	<0.01	45.601	<0.01
全队列RR=1	92.943	<0.01	78.025	<0.01	84.688	<0.01
所有局部漂移=净漂移	84.870	<0.01	60.290	<0.01	72.396	<0.01

零假设	男性		女性		总人群
零假设	χ²值	P	χ²值	P	χ²值	P
净漂移=0	33.831	<0.01	48.464	<0.01	41.550	<0.01
总年龄偏差=0	85.380	<0.01	68.260	<0.01	76.148	<0.01
总时期偏差=0	3.484	>0.05	1.299	>0.05	2.220	>0.05
总队列偏差=0	84.871	<0.01	60.308	<0.01	72.401	<0.01
全时期RR=1	38.763	<0.01	51.900	<0.01	45.601	<0.01
全队列RR=1	92.943	<0.01	78.025	<0.01	84.688	<0.01
所有局部漂移=净漂移	84.870	<0.01	60.290	<0.01	72.396	<0.01