Abstract: Objective Using the Spectrum/EPP model to estimate the epidemic and developmental trend of AIDS among adults in Xinjiang Corps,aimed to offer valuable reference data and a scientific foundation for the development of AIDS prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Historical data pertaining to AIDS in Xinjiang Corps from 1996 to 2022 were gathered and systematically organized. Utilizing the Spectrum model,the entire population was categorized into eight subpopulations,which were then integrated with demographic data,AIDS prevalence parameters,surveillance data,antiviral treatment records,and prevention of mother-to-child transmission data. This comprehensive approach enabled the estimation and prediction of the AIDS epidemic in Xinjiang Corps. Results By the conclusion of 2022,the cumulative count of surviving individuals（aged ≥15 years） with human immunodeficiency virus（HIV） infection/AIDS in Xinjiang Corps reached 1 547 cases. Among these cases,HIV infections were observed in various populations：37 cases in the drug-addicted population,26 cases in the clandestine prostitute population,114 cases in the prostitute population,190 cases in the gay and lesbian population,25 cases in the blood donation population,86 cases in the infected spouses/sexual partners population,730 cases in the remaining male population,323 cases in the remaining female population,and 16 cases of mother-to-child transmission. Comparison with estimates from the EPP-Spectrum model revealed that the proportion of surviving cases found was remarkably high,reaching 91.43%. However,the Spectrum/EPP model estimation indicated a continuous upward trend in the AIDS epidemic in Xinjiang Corps,with an estimated HIV infection rate of 7/100 000 among the population aged 15 years or older in 2022. Heterosexual transmission remained the primary route of transmission. Upon fitting the R-Spline model to the HIV-positive rates of various subpopulations,it was observed that the HIV-positive rate in the clandestine prostitute population gradually increased and deviated from the median trend. The HIV-positive rate among men who have sex with men（MSM） population exhibited a slow but steady rise. The overall HIV positivity rate among injection drug users initially increased and subsequently declined. While the rate among the client population remained stable,among the paid blood donors showed a downward trend. The HIV positivity rate in the spouse/sexual partner population was higher than that in other subgroups,and the positivity rate transitioned to a smooth curve after a rapid increase. Conclusions According to the Spectrum/EPP model,Xinjiang Corps is projected to remain a low-prevalence area for AIDS. The model highlights that clients of prostitutes,MSM,and spouses/sexual partners will be the key populations requiring attention for AIDS prevention and control in the future. To address this,timely interventions,along with effective publicity and education campaigns,will be implemented for these diverse populations,aiming to enhance early detection of HIV-infected individuals and reduce the incidence rate of AIDS in Xinjiang Corps.

Key words: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome, Spectrum model, Forecasting