Analysis on public health resource allocation and forecast in Sichuan Province based on the perspective of resource distribution

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the allocation and demand forecast of public health resources in Sichuan Province,and provide scientific basis for optimizing and developing public health resources in Sichuan Province. Methods The allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2020 was analyzed using the index of resource distribution（IRD） based on the entropy weight method and health resource density index（HRDI） and compared with the average level in China,and the gray prediction model GM（1,1） was used to predict the demand for public health resources in Sichuan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Results In 2020,the per capita total health expenditure in Sichuan Province was 4 830.52 yuan,and the number of health technicians and beds per 1,000 population was 0.483 and 0.167,respectively. Since 2013,the IRD of public health resources in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China,which indicated that the adequacy of public health resource allocation in Sichuan Province was lower than the average level in China. Taking HRDI of China as the reference standard,the deficiency of health technicians and number of beds in Sichuan Province was not less than 3 413 and 927,respectively,with a deficiency ratio of not less than 14.15% and 8.54%,respectively. According to the forecast,public health resources in Sichuan Province were growing continuously,and the total health expenditure,health technicians and number of beds are expected to reach 642 007.1 million yuan,47 299.274 people and 16 990.614 beds in 2025,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 9.49%,3.61% and 4.06%,respectively compared to 2020. Conclusion The overall allocation of public health resources in Sichuan Province is lower than the average level in China,and the number of health technicians and beds in Sichuan Province is still a large shortage compared to the average level in China,and the allocation of public health resources needs to be further strengthened.

Key words: Public health resources, Resource distribution index, Health resource density index, Grey prediction model GM（1,1）, Entropy weight method

CLC Number:

R193.8

ZHOU Minghua. Analysis on public health resource allocation and forecast in Sichuan Province based on the perspective of resource distribution. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2024, 40(9): 1272-1276.

References

[1] 林小丹,徐碧霞,姚卫光.广东省专业公共卫生机构卫生资源配置公平性分析[J].现代预防医学,2021,48(10):1839-1842.
[2] 张新宇,任建萍,朱依滢,等.中国专业公共卫生机构卫生资源配置公平性分析[J].中国预防医学杂志,2019,20(8):641-645.
[3] 周颖,柯攀,申鑫,等.中国专业公共卫生资源供给水平空间差异及动态演进[J].中国公共卫生,2023,39(4):479-484.
[4] 陈晨辉,那丽,牟昀辉.全国公共卫生人力资源配置现状及趋势分析[J].卫生经济研究,2020,37(12):28-31.
[5] 四川省卫生健康委员会.四川卫生健康统计年鉴(2020)[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社:2021.
[6] 国家卫生健康委员会.2021中国卫生健康统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社:2022.
[7] 王红漫,薛镭,杨乐.北京市2017—2018年卫生资源公平性分析[J].卫生软科学,2020,34(1):78-81.
[8] 何思长,杨长皓,应嘉川,等.基于资源分布视角的新医改前后四川省卫生资源配置研究[J].中国卫生经济,2019,38(4):44-46.
[9] 陈巧玲,王军,邹霞,等.四川省三州地区卫生人力资源配置与公平性评价分析[J].中国卫生事业管理,2020,37(5):368-371.
[10] 梁冰华,黄李凤.我国卫生资源配置效率评价及预测研究[J].卫生经济研究,2021,38(6):28-31.
[11] 李尚谦,刘筱滢,张翔.基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的湖北省卫生人力资源需求预测研究[J].卫生软科学,2020,34(3):49-53.
[12] 朱依曦,冯语盈.基于DEA模型与面板Tobit的我国公共卫生资源配置效率研究[J].中国卫生政策研究,2022,15(12):54-59.
[13] 刘兵,彭明强.后疫情时代对我国国家公共卫生应急管理体系思考[J].中国公共卫生,2020,36(12):1697-1699.
[14] 林小丹,徐碧霞,王冬,等.我国专业公共卫生机构人力资源分布特征及预测分析[J].中国卫生事业管理,2021,38(12):904-908.
[15] 刘利,秦晓明,胡小琦,等.四川秦巴山区乡镇卫生院基本公共卫生服务现状调查分析[J].社区医学杂志,2021,19(3):191-194.
[16] 赵亚楠. 我国公共卫生体系建设路径探讨[J].中国公共卫生管理,2022,38(2):152-156.
[17] “包容性绿色增长的理论与实践研究”课题组.西南地区包容性公共卫生体系优化研究[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2023, 16(2):114-120.
[18] 武骁飞,胡刚,李敬伟.我国专业公共卫生机构卫生人力资源公平性分析[J].中国卫生经济,2023,42(2):41-45.
[19] 孟翠香,尹文强,张田田,等.我国专业公共卫生机构卫生资源配置公平性分析[J].现代预防医学,2021,48(22):4136-4140.
[20] 黄丹丹,吴绍棠,梁晓晖.2012—2018年我国公共卫生人员配置公平性[J].中国卫生资源,2021,24(6):761-766.
[21] 李晓林,曾强,秦汝男,等.疾病预防控制机构提升公共卫生服务能力的探讨[J].职业与健康,2021,37(7):980-983.
[22] 朱梦蓉,杨先碧,杨珉.四川省乡镇卫生院基本公共卫生服务工作量和人力需求研究[J].四川大学学报(医学版),2021,52(5):783-788.
[23] 李丽芬,陈浩,刘毅,等.医防融合背景下我国基层医疗卫生机构卫生技术人员现状调查[J].医学与社会,2022,35(9):20-25.
[24] 冷瑶,李思宏.四川省分级诊疗实施现状分析[J].中国农村卫生事业管理,2021,41(4):251-255.
[25] 高启胜,陈定湾.县域医共体背景下完善基本公共卫生服务供给机制的探讨[J].职业与健康,2021,37(9):1282-1285.
[26] 崔兆涵,郭冰清,王虎峰.健康协同治理:服务提供、健康政策和社会参与[J].中国医院管理,2021,41(11):1-6.
[27] 蔡媛青. 健康赋权视角下高质量公共卫生治理体系研究[J].医学与社会,2023,36(1):1-5.