Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005-2021

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To understand the current status and long-term trend of mumps incidence in Jinghzou City from 2005 to 2021. Methods The incidence data of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005 to 2021 and the birth population data of 0-9 years old from 2004 to 2020 were collected. The descriptive epidemiological methods,Joinpoint regression models,birth cohort analysis,and age-period-cohort（APC） analysis were used to analyze the period of incidence of mumps,the age of high incidence,and the birth year change. The annual percentage change（APC） and average annual percentage change（AAPC） were used to describe the trend of mumps incidence by year. Results A total of 13 298 cases of mumps were reported in Jingzhou City from 2005 to 2021,with an average annual incidence of 13.56/100 000. There was no overall trend change in the incidence of mumps from 2005 to 2021（AAPC=-0.17%,95%CI：-1.21%-0.87%）,and there was a significant downward trend from 2011 to 2021（APC=87.11%,95%CI：13.04 %-98.09%）. The incidence in 5-9 year-old age group was the highest（126.71/100 000）,followed by the10-14 year-old age group（74.47/100 000）. The age distribution was consistent across years. The incidence rate of children aged 0-9 years old born in Jingzhou City from 2004 to 2012 decreased with the increase of birth year（r_s=-0.97,P<0.01）. The results of APC model analysis showed that the age of high incidence of mumps in children aged 0-9 years old in Jingzhou City was 5-6 and 9 years old. The year with the highest incidence of mumps was 2010 to 2011. The incidence risk of the birth cohort from 1998 to 2007 showed a downward trend,the incidence risk of the birth cohort from 2008 to 2012 remained unchanged,and the incidence risk of the birth cohort from 2012 to 2019 decreased slightly. Conclusion Since 2008,the one-dose measles-mumps-rubella（MMR） vaccine has been included in the national expanded immunization program,which has reduced the incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City,but the reduction effect is limited.

Key words: Mumps, Age, Birth cohort, Age-period-cohort analysis, Vaccine

CLC Number:

R181.8⁺1

LIU Tian, HOU Qingbo, YAO Menglei, HUANG Jigui, CHEN Hongying, ZHAO Jing. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005-2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(22): 3112-3116.

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