Analysis on incidence trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu from 2005 to 2024

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the incidence trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu from 2005 to 2024，and to provide reference for the formulation of infectious disease prevention and control measures in Chengdu. Methods The data of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu from 2005 to 2024 were collected，and the difference of incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases was compared by incidence rate ratio（IRR）. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the average annual percentage change（AAPC） and annual percentage change（APC） in the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu. Descriptive analysis was conducted on the population distribution and seasonal characteristics of the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases. Results From 2005 to 2024，a total of 37 types of notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Chengdu，with 2 404 292 cases and an average annual incidence rate of 792.74 per 100 000. There were 6 528 reported deaths，with a mortality rate of 2.15 per 100 000. From 2005 to 2024，the incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu showed an overall upward trend（AAPC=6.82%，95%CI：1.56%-12.19%）.The main mode of transmission was respiratory infectious diseases，and the overall incidence rate showed an upward trend（AAPC=13.46%，95%CI：7.87%-20.35%）.The incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases was higher in males than in females（IRR=1.191，95%CI：1.187-1.194），and the main affected population was those under 10 years old. The peak incidence months for Class A and B infectious diseases were spring and summer，while for Class C infectious diseases，they were winter and spring. By transmission route，intestinal infectious diseases peaked in summer and winter，respiratory infectious diseases were highly prevalent in winter and spring，naturally transmitted and vector-borne infectious diseases mainly had a high incidence in summer，while blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases showed no obvious seasonal changes. Conclusion From 2005 to 2024，the incidence rates of Classes A，B，and C notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu showed a significant upward trend，with respiratory infections being the predominant disease category. The incidence rate was higher in males than in females，and the main affected population was those under 10 years old. Respiratory，intestinal，and natural foci and vector-borne infectious diseases had obvious seasonal characteristics.It is essential to continuously optimize and expand the vaccination strategy under the National Immunization Program，in order to effectively block the transmission chain and curb the spread of outbreaks in collective child care settings.

Key words: Chengdu City, Notifiable infectious diseases, Trend analysis, Route of transmission, Incidence rate

CLC Number:

R181.8+1

TU Zhihan, LIU Yunsheng, HU Min, WANG Yao, ZHANG Shuang, LIU Hui. Analysis on incidence trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Chengdu from 2005 to 2024. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2026, 42(16): 2240-2245.

Figures/Tables 6

References 21

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传播途径	发病数（例）	年均发病率（1/10万）	趋势变化时段（年）	APC（95%CI，%）	AAPC（95%CI，%）
肠道传染病	696 219	229.56	2005—2018	7.31（3.88~23.68）^a	1.82（-2.0~5.03）
			2018—2024	-9.13（-35.96~0.83）
呼吸道传染病	1 391 613	458.85	2005—2017	-7.52（-17.62~0.58）	13.46（7.87~20.35）^a
			2017—2024	61.11（35.61~117.80）^a
自然疫源及虫媒传染病	2 185	0.72	2005—2008	-33.37（-59.23~-1.55）^a	-5.44（-9.05~0.72）
			2008—2024	0.98（-12.07~30.62）
血源及性传播传染病	314 785	103.79	2005—2014	-5.82（-17.87 ~-1.86）^a	-0.21（-1.97~1.64）
			2014—2024	5.13（1.46~19.42）^a

传播途径	发病数（例）	年均发病率（1/10万）	趋势变化时段（年）	APC（95%CI，%）	AAPC（95%CI，%）
肠道传染病	696 219	229.56	2005—2018	7.31（3.88~23.68）^a	1.82（-2.0~5.03）
			2018—2024	-9.13（-35.96~0.83）
呼吸道传染病	1 391 613	458.85	2005—2017	-7.52（-17.62~0.58）	13.46（7.87~20.35）^a
			2017—2024	61.11（35.61~117.80）^a
自然疫源及虫媒传染病	2 185	0.72	2005—2008	-33.37（-59.23~-1.55）^a	-5.44（-9.05~0.72）
			2008—2024	0.98（-12.07~30.62）
血源及性传播传染病	314 785	103.79	2005—2014	-5.82（-17.87 ~-1.86）^a	-0.21（-1.97~1.64）
			2014—2024	5.13（1.46~19.42）^a