Trend analysis and prediction of varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To explore the trend in varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023,analyze the effect of age,period,cohort,and immunization strategy on the incidence. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to explore the incidence trend and the age-period-cohort model was established to analyze the effects of age,period,and cohort effect on varicella incidence,and GM（1,1） model was established to predict incidence from 2024 to 2026. Results The annual incidence rate of varicella among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City was 850.02/100 000 from 2009 to 2023. The Joinpoint regression showed a decreasing trend in varicellaincidence rate from 2009 to 2023（AAPC=-15.28,P<0.01）,with a turning point in 2019.The age-period-cohort model revealed that the overall incidence rate of varicella in children showed a decreasing trend（net drift value <0）. The incidence rates of 0-<5 years old and 5-<10 years old showed a decreasing trend（local drift value <0）,while the incidence rate of 10-<15 years old showed an increasing trend（local drift value >0）. The factors of age,period and cohort all had an impact on the incidence of varicella. The incidence of varicella trended upward and then downward with age,with the highest incidence rate（1 352.28/100 000） at 5~<10 years old of age. The period effect showed the lowest incidence risk during 2019-2023,and the cohort effect found the lowest incidence risk in 2015-2019 birth cohort.GM （1,1） model prediction showed a decreasing trend in incidence from 2024 to 2026. Conclusions There is a decreasing trend in varicella incidencea mong children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023,with a significant age-period-cohort effect. A significant decrease in incidence is found after the implementation of the immunization strategy of a free 2-dose varicella vaccine in 2019,which should be continued to further reduce the varicella morbidity transmission risk.

Key words: Varicella, Children, Epidemiological characteristic, Joinpoint model, Age-period-cohort model

CLC Number:

R181.8⁺1

LIN Kai, LIU Yawen, LI Biao, XU Zhendong, HUANG Renzhan, LI Xuemei. Trend analysis and prediction of varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(10): 1390-1394.

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