Time series association analysis of air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in some regions of Xinjiang from 2015-2021

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To explore the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in multiple regions of Xinjiang and the lag effect of pollutants on lung cancer incidence,and analyze the effect differences between regions. Method The data of fine particles（PM_2.5）,inhalable particles（PM₁₀）,NO₂,SO₂,CO,ozone daily maximum 8-h average concentration（O_{3-8 h}）,meteorological factors and lung cancer incidence of residents in Urumqi,Karamay and Hotan from January 1,2015 to December 31,2021 were collected. The generalized additive Poisson regression model of time series was used to control the long-term trend after the influence of meteorological factors and day of the week effect,the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in single pollutant model and two pollutant model was quantitatively analyzed. Results In the single pollutant model,the maximum effect value of PM₁₀ on lung cancer incidence was 1.30%（95%CI：0.56%-2.05%） in Urumqi with a cumulative lag of 2 days（lag 02）,while the maximum effect value of NO₂ was 15.40%（95%CI：8.33%-22.94%） in lag 04,and the maximum effect value of CO was 23.84%（95%CI：7.29%-42.94%） in lag 02;The effect value of PM₁₀,O_{3-8 h} exposure on the daily incidence of lung cancer in karamay was 1.89%（95%CI：0.12%-3.70%） and 5.93%（95%CI：0.46%-11.69%） when lag 6 and 2 days（lag 6 and lag 2）;The lag effect of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ exposure on lung cancer incidence in Hotan was the largest on the lag day and lag 05,with 1.72%（95%CI：0.14%-3.32%） and 0.68%（95%CI：0.23%-1.14%）. In the two pollutant model,PM₁₀,NO₂ and CO in Urumqi had synergistic effects with the other five pollutants on lung cancer incidence. PM₁₀,PM_2.5,NO₂ and O_{3-8 h} in Karamay had a synergistic effect on the incidence of lung cancer,which was not affected by SO₂ and CO;O_{3-8 h} had synergistic effect with the other five pollutants. PM_2.5 and SO₂,NO₂ and CO in Hotan had a synergistic effect on the incidence of lung cancer,while adjusting PM₁₀ and O_{3-8 h},the effect of PM_2.5 on lung cancer disappeared;PM₁₀,PM_2.5,O_{3-8 h} had a combined effect,which was not affected by SO₂,NO₂ and CO. Conclusion Exposure to air pollutants can lead to an increase in the risk of lung cancer among residents,and this risk varies among different regions.

Key words: Atmospheric pollutants, Lung cancer, Time series analysis, Generalized additive model

CLC Number:

R181.3⁺4

CHAO Xiaoqin, ZHANG Rong, Adila Sulidan, Xiamusiye Muyiduli, LU Ying, WANG Xijiang. Time series association analysis of air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in some regions of Xinjiang from 2015-2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(17): 2310-2317.

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