Analysis on current situation and demand forecast of health technicians in Sichuan Province

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To forecast the demand for health technicians in Sichuan Province，provide scientific basis for the rational planning of health technicians in Sichuan Province. Methods The manpower to population ratio method，manpower economic ratio method and manpower health expenditure ratio method were used to predict the number of health technicians. The predicted number and the actual number were statistically tested and the most accurate method was selected for prediction. Results The number of health technicians predicted by manpower to population ratio method，manpower economic ratio method and manpower health expenditure ratio method was not significantly different from the actual number，and the three prediction methods were all feasible.Through comparison，it was found that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the manpower economic ratio method was smaller，and the prediction was more accurate.According to forecasts，there will be 856 036.85 health technicians in Sichuan Province in 2025. From the perspective of professional classification，in 2025，there be 288 368.11 practicing（assistant） physicians，456 907.75 registered nurses，34 745.43 pharmacists and 94 948.95 other personnel，and the ratio of doctors to nurses will reach 1 ∶ 1.58. From the perspective of the classification of institutions，the number of health technicians，practicing（assistant） physicians，registered nurses，pharmacists and other personnel in primary medical and health institutions in 2025 will be 257 031.60，107 976.88，123 630.06，11 165.39 and 28 857.43，respectively，and the ratio of doctors to nurses will reach 1 ∶ 1.14. From the perspective of the classification of hospitals，in 2025，there will be 125 790.24 health technicians，37 194.35 practicing（assistant） physicians，68 975.33 registered nurses，5 865.25 pharmacists and 14 607.72 other personnel in secondary hospitals. Conclusions The growth rate of health technicians is inconsistent，the professional category structure is unreasonable，the distribution of different types of institutions is uneven，and the allocation of health technicians in different levels of hospitals is inconsistent.It is necessary to clarify the functional positioning of secondary hospitals，strengthen the training of health technical personnel，and focus on strengthening the construction of nursing staff in primary medical and health institutions and practicing（assistant） physicians in professional public health institutions.

Key words: Health technicians, Demand forecasting, Manpower to population ratio method, Manpower economic ratio method, Manpower health expenditure ratio method

CLC Number:

R192

ZHOU Ming-hua, TAN Hong, HE Si-zhang. Analysis on current situation and demand forecast of health technicians in Sichuan Province. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(3): 418-423.

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