Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic monitoring data of hand-foot-and-mouth disease（HFMD） in Jingdezhen City from 2009 to 2022,and understand the epidemic characteristics of HFMD. The seasonal time-series prediction model was utilized to predict and fit the annual incidence rate of HFMD in Jingdezhen City,and the accuracy of the model was evaluated. Methods The monthly incidence rate data of HFMD in Jingdezhen from 2009 to 2022 were collected from the information data center in Jingdezhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The sample database and the integrated prediction value table were established using Excel 2022 software,the data processing and plotting were carried out using SPSS 25.0 software,the optimal model was selected according to the residual white noise test and the Bayesian information criterions（BIC）. The monthly incidence rate data of HFMD in Jingdezhen City from 2009 to 2022 were used to establish the relevant model and perform fitting extrapolation. The actual data from January to December 2022 were used to test the prediction effect. The absolute error and relative error were used to evaluate the credibility of the model. Results From 2009 to 2022,a total of 31 989 cases of HFMD were reported in Jingdezhen City,occurring every year,mainly concentrated in April to June and September to October,with May being the peak period of incidence. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model（SARIMA） was used to predict the incidence rate of HFMD,and the SARIMA（1,0,1）（0,1,1）₁₂ was found to be the best fit. The fitted extrapolated values of the 12 month HFMD incidence rate in 2022 were selected,and the actual values fluctuated within the 95%CI range of the predicted value,and the overall prediction was ideal. Conclusion Seasonality and periodicity exist in HFMD in Jingdezhen,and the SARIMA model fits and predicts the trend of HFMD more accurately,which can be used to predict the incidence of HFMD in the short term and provide certain scientific reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.

Key words: Hand-foot-and-mouth disease, Incidence, Prevalence characteristics, Autoregressive moving average model, Prediction