Analysis on tuberculosis epidemic characteristics in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022 based on Joinpoint Jump model

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022,and improve prevention and control strategies and measures. Methods The registration report information of pulmonary tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from January 1,2010 to December 31,2022 was collected through the subsystem "tuberculosis information management system" of "China Disease Prevention and Control Information System",and the Joinpoint Jump Model was used to analyze the changing trend. Results There were 19 652 registered tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022. With an average annual decline of 2.89%,the registered incidence decreased from 31.77/100 000 to 16.24/100 000. The number of registered patients ranged from 1 410 to 1 708 in 2010-2021,while the number was only 938 in 2022. Compared with 2021,the registered incidence decreased by 34.06% in 2022. The registered incidence rate of pathogenic positive tuberculosis decreased by 20.30% annually from 2019-2022. The registered incidence of male was higher than that of female,and the average annual decrease of male and female was 3.19% and 2.26% respectively. The patients aged 15-<30 years old took the most part of all the patients,but the proportion decreased by an average of 3.83% annually. The registered incidence of tuberculosis in the local registered residence and non local registered residence population decreased by 2.69% and 2.60% respectively,and the incidence of registered population in the central urban area decreased by 3.89% annually. The differences in all the above trends were statistically significant（all P<0.05）. Conclusions The registered incidence of tuberculosis in decreased year by year from 2010-2022 in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City,and the number of registered patients and incidence rate dropped significantly in 2022,which showed a lag effect. With increasing numbers of undiagnosed and untreated patients,the risk of community transmission of infection may increase,the tuberculosis prevention and control strategies should be actively reformed and improved according to the situation in the post-public health emergency era.

Key words: Tuberculosis, Epidemic characteristics, Joinpoint regression model, Public health emergency

CLC Number:

R181.3

CHEN Lili, LI Peng, CAI Fengzhu, LI Shihong, ZHAO Qi, XIAO Shaotan. Analysis on tuberculosis epidemic characteristics in Pudong New Area of Shanghai City from 2010-2022 based on Joinpoint Jump model. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2024, 40(9): 1195-1200.

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