Abstract: Objective To understand the subjective estimates of life expectancy of the elderly over 60 years old in China and its influencing factors,so as to provide reference for individuals,society,and decision-making departments to effectively improve life expectancy. Methods Individuals aged 60 and above of the China health and retirement longitudinal study（CHARLS） in 2013, 2 015,and 2018 were selected to analyze the subjective life expectancy（SLE） and its influencing factors of the elderly in China by a fixed-effects ordered logit model,and analyzed the heterogeneity between elderly people of different genders. Results A total of 2987 elderly people were included in the study. Overall,from 2013 to 2018,the proportion of "virtually certain" and "very likely" of SLE declined,with "virtually certain" declining even more,from 22.60% to 10.91%. The proportion of "almost impossible" and "unlikely" of SLE showed an upward trend,with "almost impossible" showing a larger increase from 13.83% to 23.97%. Although the proportion of "likely" had decreased,the overall trend was still on the rise. The SLE was lower for older persons with chronic diseases,hospitalization due to illness in the past year,depression,and poor self-assessed health,and higher for those who were covered by basic health insurance,smoked,had one living parent,and participated in social activities. Conclusion It is suggested that the care for the elderly should be strengthened at the social,family and individual levels. By meeting the physical and mental health needs of the elderly,the goal of improving their life expectancy can be achieved.

Key words: Subjective life expectancy, Fixed-effects ordered logit models, Influencing factors, Panel data, Elderly