Prediction and analysis of total health expenses in Inner Mongolia based on ARIMA-GM（1,1） combination model

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To predict the total health expenses and their proportion to gross domestic product（GDP） in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2022 to 2030,and provide scientific and systematic basis for relevant health departments to adjust health policies. Methods Using the total health expenses and related data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,a combination model was established based on ARIMA and GM（1,1） models to analyze and predict the total health expenses and their proportion to GDP in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2022 to 2030. Results The data fitting effect of the combination model was good,and it was the optimal model. It is expected that by 2030,the total health expenditure will increase to 216.349 billion yuan,and the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP will reach 8.83%. Conclusion The total health expenses and the proportion of total health expenses to GDP in Inner Mongolia will show a stable growth trend in the coming years. During this period,Inner Mongolia needs to control its reasonable growth,ensure that the investment in health expenses is coordinated with the economic development level of the autonomous region,improve the efficiency of health services,provide better and more efficient health services to the people of the autonomous region,and promote the sustainable development of health policies.

Key words: Total health expenses, Combination model, Prediction, Inner Mongolia

QUAN Zhiwei, WANG Jiamei, SUN Jing. Prediction and analysis of total health expenses in Inner Mongolia based on ARIMA-GM（1,1） combination model. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(11): 1552-1557.

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