Abstract: Objective To analyze the dynamic development of health human resources in minority areas of Sichuan Province and predict the development in the next 5 years,so as to provide a scientific basis for further optimization of health human resources allocation. Methods Data on human resources for health in 67 counties in ethnic minority areas of Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2021 were extracted from the Sichuan Health Statistics Yearbook,and the number of health human resources per 1 000 population,the chain growth rate and the fixed base ratio growth rate were used to evaluate the development of health human resources,the deviation-share analysis was used to evaluate the structural development of health human resources,and the gray prediction model GM（1,1） was used to predict the development of health human resources from 2022 to 2026. Results The number of health technicians,licensed（assistant） physicians and registered nurses and other major health human resources per 1 000 population in nationally recognized ethnic areas,provincially recognized ethnic areas and provincial government-approved counties enjoying ethnic area benefits was lower than the average level in Sichuan Province. The provincial government-approved counties enjoying ethnic area benefits of health technicians,licensed（assistant） physicians and registered nurses,and other major health human resources had relatively fast chain growth rates and fixed base ratio growth rates. Taking the average level of Sichuan Province as a reference,the total deviation scores of licensed（assistant） physicians,registered nurses and technicians in 3 types of ethnic minority areas were less than 0,the overall deviation of the structure scores of health technicians,pharmacists and other personnel in nationally recognized ethnic areas and provincial government-approved counties enjoying ethnic areas were less than 0,and the overall deviation of the competitiveness scores of health technicians,pharmacists and other personnel in provincially recognized ethnic areas were less than 0. Conclusion Health human resources in ethnic minority areas of Sichuan Province continue to grow,but there is an overall shortage of health human resources. Health human resources in ethnic minority areas each have structural and competitive advantages and disadvantages relative to the average level of Sichuan Province.

Key words: Health human resources, Minority regions, Deviation-share analysis, Gray prediction model GM（1, 1）