Abstract:

Objective To assess the health risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus exposure to freshwater shrimp by residents in Tianjin City，identify key risk factors for priority control，and provide a basis for foodborne disease prevention and control and risk management. Methods Based on the risk monitoring data of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater shrimp from the aquaculture sector in Tianjin City in 2024，as well as the consumption volume and behavior data of residents regarding freshwater shrimp，this study followed the risk assessment steps，referenced relevant parameters from scientific literature and reports，and employed the Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the growth and changes of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater shrimp throughout the entire process from "aquaculture to dining table"，and quantitatively evaluate the level of exposure of Tianjin residents to Vibrio parahaemolyticus through freshwater shrimp and the associated health risks. Results The detection rate of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater shrimp farming in Tianjin City during 2024 reached 51.06%，with an average contamination level of 1.04 log MPN/g. The median per meal consumption of freshwater shrimp among Tianjin residents was 112.50 g，and the difference in consumption across different age groups was statistically significant（P<0.01）. Mean value of probability of foodborne diseases caused by consumption of freshwater shrimp contaminated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Tianjin City was 1.949×10^-5，and the expected number of cases was 266. Sensitivity analysis showed that the initial concentration of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater shrimp（r_s=0.785），residents' consumption of freshwater shrimp（r_s=0.373），the proportion of raw food（r_s=0.216） and inadequate heating（r_s=0.189） were the main factors affecting the risk of disease. Conclusion The risk of foodborne diseases caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus contamination in freshwater shrimp in Tianjin City is acceptable. Controlling the initial concentration of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in freshwater shrimp in aquaculture and improving residents' consumption behavior（appropriate proportion of residents' consumption， reducing the proportion of raw food and inadequate heating） are the key to reducing health risks.

Key words: Freshwater shrimp, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Quantitative risk assessment