Abstract: Objective To understand the case distribution and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Nanjing City,develop an autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model to predict short-term disease incidence trend,and provide a scientific foundation for formulating mumps prevention and control strategies. Methods The mumps morbidity data in Nanjing City from 2013 to 2023 were obtained from the notifiable infectious disease reporting information management system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,and the epidemiological investigation data were collected from the mumps data decision-making system of Nanjing City,to analyze the epidemiological characteristics. An ARIMA model was constructed using R3.6.1 to predict short-term mumps incidence trends. Results A total of 6 607 mumps cases were reported in Nanjing City from 2013 to 2023,with an average annual incidence rate of 7.00/100 000（3.07/100 000-19.62/100 000）. The disease exhibited a bimodal distribution,with primary peaks in April-June（36.95%） and a secondary peak in September（9.66%）. The top three districts with reported mumps incidence rates were Jiangbei New Area,Liuhe District,and Yuhuatai District,accounting for 40.67%（2 687 cases） of the total. Males outnumbered females with a gender ratio of 1.52：1. The age of onset was mainly concentrated in the age group of 0-<15 years old,accounting for 82.37%,of which the age group of 5-<10 years old accounted for 41.29%,followed by the age group of 0-<5 and 10-<15 years old,accounting for 24.02% and 17.06% respectively. The patients were mainly students （50.72%）,nursery children（30.54%） and scattered children（9.11%）,representing 90.37% of total cases. The model construction showed that the optimal model was ARIMA（2,1,2）（1,0,0）12,Akaike information criterion（AIC）=417.270,Bayesian information criterion（BIC）=428.386,with Ljung-Box test results showing χ²=0.301,P=0.583. Conclusion The mumps incidence in Nanjing City displays a declining trend,the key populations for mumps prevention and control are people under 15 years old,including students,nursery children and scattered children,and it is essential to continuing to strengthen comprehensive prevention strategies and measures,such as vaccination,disease monitoring,and verification of enrollment and daycare vaccination certificates,so as to improving the level of disease prevention and control.

Key words: Mumps, Epidemiological characteristics, Autoregressive integrated moving average model, Nanjing City