关键词: 气温, 寿命损失年, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Objective To evaluate the impact of daily average air temperature on the years of life loss（YLL） of residents in Zhenjiang City. Methods Daily meteorological and cause of death data were collected in Zhenjiang City from 2015 to 2022,and the association between daily average air temperature and YLL due to different causes of death was quantified using a distributed lagged nonlinear model. Results The association between daily average air temperature and YLL showed a "U" shaped curve. The impact of high temperature on YLL appeared on the same day and lasted only 2-4 days,while the impact of low temperature on YLL appeared on the 2-4 days with a lag and lasted until 8-10 days. The cumulative effect of high temperature on non-accidental death and circulatory system disease death YLL（95%CI） reached its maximum at a lag of 3 days,which were 164.93（95%CI：125.33-204.52）years and 104.83（95%CI：84.66-125.00）years,respectively. The cumulative effect on respiratory system death YLL（95%CI） reached its maximum at a lag of 7 days,which was 21.50（95%CI：13.17-29.83）years. The cumulative effect of low temperature on non-accidental death,circulatory system disease death and respiratory system disease deaths YLL（95%CI） peaked at a lag of 14 days,which were 149.74（95%CI：46.66-252.82）years,98.10（95%CI：43.06-153.13）years,and 24.69（95%CI：5.79-44.15）years,respectively. The cumulative effect of high temperature on YLL was greater in women than in men,while low temperature only had an impact on the YLL in men. Both high and low temperatures had an impact on YLL of people aged ≥65,but had no impact on people aged <65. Conclusion Both high and low temperatures can significantly increase the YLL of residents in Zhenjiang,and women and people over 65 years old are sensitive to high temperatures,while men and people over 65 years old are sensitive to low temperatures.

Key words: Airtemperature, Years of life lost, Time series analysis