2017—2021年淮安市大气PM2.5对死亡健康影响及超额死亡风险评估

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 249-253.

2017—2021年淮安市大气PM_2.5对死亡健康影响及超额死亡风险评估

骆善彩^1a, 孙中明^1b, 徐梦颖², 吴鑫宇³, 张雯^1a, 葛恒康^1a

1.淮安市疾病预防控制中心 a营养与食品卫生科,b慢性病地方病防治科,江苏淮安 223001;
2.淮安市气象局气象服务中心,江苏淮安 223001;
3.江苏省淮安环境监测中心大气环境监测科,江苏淮安 223001

收稿日期:2024-06-15 修回日期:2024-07-04 出版日期:2025-01-15 发布日期:2025-12-11
通信作者: 葛恒康,副主任医师,E-mail：49912468@qq.com
作者简介:骆善彩,男,副主任医师,主要从事环境流行病学工作。
基金资助:
江苏省卫健委预防医学课题（Ym2023023）; 淮安市自然科学研究计划（联合专项）卫生健康类科研项目（HABL202249）

Impact of atmospheric PM_2.5 on mortality and health,as well as assessment of excess mortality risk in Huai'an City from 2017 to 2021

LUO Shancai^1a, SUN Zhongming^1b, XU Mengying², WU Xinyu³, ZHANG Wen^1a, GE Hengkang^1a

1. a Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, b Department of Chronic Disease and Endemic Disease Prevention and Control, Huai'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an, Jiangsu 223001, China;
2. Meteorological Service Center, Huai'an Meteorological Bureau, Huai'an, Jiangsu 223001, China;
3. Atmospheric Environment Monitoring Department, Jiangsu Huai'an Environmental Monitoring Center, Huai'an, Jiangsu 223001, China

Received:2024-06-15 Revised:2024-07-04 Online:2025-01-15 Published:2025-12-11
Contact: GE Hengkang,Associate chief physician,E-mail：49912468@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解淮安市环境空气细颗粒物（particulate matter 2.5,PM_2.5）对人群死亡的短期暴露急性影响和导致的年均超额死亡风险。方法收集2017年1月—2021年12月淮安市每日死亡人数及同期气象、大气PM_2.5数据,采用广义相加模型（generalized additive model,GAM）分析PM_2.5对居民死亡影响的急性效应及累积滞后效应,并采用健康风险评估模型分析归因于PM_2.5污染的超额死亡风险。结果 2017—2021年淮安市环境空气PM_2.5年均值为41.12 μg/m³,高于国家环境空气质量2级限值;GAM模型发现PM_2.5对死亡影响存在滞后效应和累积滞后效应,PM_2.5对非意外死亡、呼吸系统死亡和循环系统死亡急性效应均在暴露当天（lag0 d）效应达到最大值,日浓度每升高10 μg/m³,健康风险增加分别为0.92%、1.29% 和1.06%;PM_2.5对非意外死亡、呼吸系统死亡和循环系统死亡累积效应分别在lag0：1 d、lag0：2 d、lag0：1 d达到最大值,日浓度每升高10 μg/m³,健康风险增加分别为0.82%、1.47%和0.97%。以PM_2.5=35 μg/m³为参考质量浓度进行超额死亡风险评估,PM_2.5由2017年年均质量浓度44.42 μg/m³下降到2021年的35.99 μg/m³,相比于2017年,2021年非意外死亡、呼吸系统死亡、循环系统死亡分别减少了32.55%,49.39%和22.56%。结论淮安市环境空气PM_2.5质量浓度处于较高水平,但有效控制PM_2.5质量浓度,会显著降低居民的超额死亡风险。

关键词: 细颗粒物, 广义相加模型, 滞后效应, 健康风险评估

Abstract: Objective To investigate the short-term acute exposure effects of fine particulate matter（PM_2.5） on population mortality in the ambient air of Huai'an City and evaluate average annual excess mortality risk in Huai’an. Methods Collected the daily mortality data in Huai'an City from 2017 to 2021,along with concurrent meteorological data and atmospheric PM_2.5 levels. Generalized additive models（GAM） were used to analyze the acute effects of PM_2.5 on resident mortality and the cumulative lag effects. Additionally,a health risk assessment model was employed to analyze the excess mortality risk attributable to PM_2.5. Results From 2017 to 2021,the annual average PM_2.5 level was 41.12 μg/m³ in Huai'an City,which exceeded the national air quality grade II limit. The GAM model revealed that the impact of PM_2.5 on mortality presented lag and cumulative lag effects. The acute effects of PM_2.5 on non-accidental,respiratory,and circulatory deaths peaked on the day of exposure（lag0 d）,with health risks increasing by 0.92%,1.29%,and 1.06%,respectively for every 10 μg/m³ increase in daily concentration. The cumulative effects of PM_2.5 on non-accidental,respiratory,and circulatory deaths reached their maxima at lag0：1 d,lag0：2 d,and lag0：1 d,respectively,with health risks increasing by 0.82%,1.47%,and 0.97%,respectively for each 10 μg/m³ increase in daily concentration. Using PM_2.5=35.0 μg/m³ as a reference mass concentration for assessing excess mortality risk,the annual average PM_2.5 concentration decreased from 44.42 μg/m³ in 2017 to 35.99 μg/m³ in 2021. Compared to 2017,the numbers of non-accidental,respiratory,and circulatory deaths in 2021 decreased by 32.55%,49.39% and 22.56%,respectively. Conclusion The ambient air PM_2.5 concentration in Huaian City is at a relatively high level,but effective control of PM_2.5 concentration can significantly reduce the risk of excess mortality among residents.

Key words: Fine particulate matter, Generalized additive model, Lag effect, Health risk assessment

中图分类号:

R181.3⁺4

骆善彩, 孙中明, 徐梦颖, 吴鑫宇, 张雯, 葛恒康. 2017—2021年淮安市大气PM_2.5对死亡健康影响及超额死亡风险评估. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(2): 249-253.

LUO Shancai, SUN Zhongming, XU Mengying, WU Xinyu, ZHANG Wen, GE Hengkang. Impact of atmospheric PM_2.5 on mortality and health,as well as assessment of excess mortality risk in Huai'an City from 2017 to 2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(2): 249-253.

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