关键词: 恶性肿瘤, 死亡, 趋势, 早死概率

Abstract: Objective To understand the mortality trend and the probability of premature mortality of cancers in Chongming District of Shanghai,and to provide basis for reducing the probability of premature mortality and achieving the goal of controlling the probability of premature mortality. Methods Collect cancer death data of registered residents in Chongming District of Shanghai from 2005 to 2022,calculate crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,the probability of premature mortality and other indicators of cancer,and use annual percentage of change（APC） and average annual percentage of change（AAPC） to reflect the change trend of crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality. Results From 2005 to 2022,the crude mortality rate of cancer among registered residents in Chongming District of Shanghai was 274.38/10⁵,the standardized mortality rate was 97.93/10⁵. The male crude mortality rate was 353.88/10⁵,the male standardized mortality rate was 133.88/10⁵. The female crude mortality rate was 197.25/10⁵,the female standardized mortality rate was 66.79/10⁵. The rude mortality rate of mortality,male and female showed an upward trend（APC_totle=2.22%,APC_male=2.20%,APC_female=2.15%,all P<0.01）,while the standardized mortality rates showed a downward trend（APC_totle=-1.51%,APC_male=-1.74%,APC_female=-1.39%,all P<0.01）. The standardized mortality rate of male colorectal cancer showed an upward trend among various cancers（AAPC=3.57%,P<0.01）,the standardized mortality rate of female cervical cancer showed an upward trend（APC=5.32%,P<0.05）. The probability of premature mortality of cancer was 6.39%,the male was 8.36%,the female was 4.46%. The probability of premature mortality of overall population,male and female showed a downward trend（APC_totle=-2.40%,APC_male=-2.42%,APC_female=-2.27%,all P<0.01）. Lung cancer, liver cancer,and gastric cancer were the top three probabilities of premature mortality in men and women. The probability of premature mortality of top ten cancers for males with lung cancer,liver cancer,gastric cancer,esophageal cancer showed a decreasing trend（all P<0.05）,while for females with gastric cancer,liver cancer,brain and central nervous system,and leukemia showed a decreasing trend（all P<0.05）. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of cancer showed an upward trend,and the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature mortality showed a decreasing trend. The standardized mortality rate of male colorectal cancer and female cervical cancer is on the increase. The probability of premature mortality of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer in male and female,lung cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,and ovarian cancer in female are not on the decline. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the mortality and the probability of premature mortality.

Key words: Malignant tumor, Mortality, Trend, Probability of premature mortality