基于ARIMA-GM（1,1）组合模型的内蒙古卫生总费用预测分析

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 1552-1557.

基于ARIMA-GM（1,1）组合模型的内蒙古卫生总费用预测分析

全志伟, 王佳美, 孙静

内蒙古医科大学卫生管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010000

收稿日期:2024-08-20 修回日期:2024-09-09 发布日期:2025-12-12
通信作者: 孙静,教授,E-mail：sunjing@immu.edu.cn
作者简介:全志伟,男,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为医疗卫生体系建设。
基金资助:
内蒙古自然科学基金项目（2022MS07002）; 内蒙古社科规划办项目（2021NDB169）

Prediction and analysis of total health expenses in Inner Mongolia based on ARIMA-GM（1,1） combination model

QUAN Zhiwei, WANG Jiamei, SUN Jing

School of Health Management, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia 010000, China

Received:2024-08-20 Revised:2024-09-09 Published:2025-12-12
Contact: SUN Jing,Professor,E-mail：sunjing@immu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的对2022—2030年内蒙古自治区卫生总费用及其占国内生产总值（gross domestic product,GDP）的比重进行预测,为相关卫生部门在调整卫生政策时提供科学、系统的依据。方法利用内蒙古自治区卫生总费用及其相关数据,以ARIMA、GM（1,1）模型为基础,建立组合模型,对2022—2030年内蒙古自治区卫生总费用及其占GDP的比重进行分析预测。结果组合模型的数据拟合效果较好,为最优模型。预计到2030年,卫生总费用将增长至2 163.49亿元,卫生总费用占GDP的比重将达到8.83%。结论内蒙古自治区卫生总费用及卫生总费用占GDP的比重在未来几年内将呈现稳定增长的态势,在此期间内蒙古自治区需要控制其合理增长,确保卫生费用的投入与自治区的经济发展水平相协调,提升卫生服务的效率,以提供给自治区人民更优质、高效的卫生服务,促进内蒙古自治区卫生政策可持续发展。

关键词: 卫生总费用, 组合模型, 预测, 内蒙古

Abstract: Objective To predict the total health expenses and their proportion to gross domestic product（GDP） in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2022 to 2030,and provide scientific and systematic basis for relevant health departments to adjust health policies. Methods Using the total health expenses and related data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,a combination model was established based on ARIMA and GM（1,1） models to analyze and predict the total health expenses and their proportion to GDP in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2022 to 2030. Results The data fitting effect of the combination model was good,and it was the optimal model. It is expected that by 2030,the total health expenditure will increase to 216.349 billion yuan,and the proportion of total health expenditure to GDP will reach 8.83%. Conclusion The total health expenses and the proportion of total health expenses to GDP in Inner Mongolia will show a stable growth trend in the coming years. During this period,Inner Mongolia needs to control its reasonable growth,ensure that the investment in health expenses is coordinated with the economic development level of the autonomous region,improve the efficiency of health services,provide better and more efficient health services to the people of the autonomous region,and promote the sustainable development of health policies.

Key words: Total health expenses, Combination model, Prediction, Inner Mongolia

全志伟, 王佳美, 孙静. 基于ARIMA-GM（1,1）组合模型的内蒙古卫生总费用预测分析. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(11): 1552-1557.

QUAN Zhiwei, WANG Jiamei, SUN Jing. Prediction and analysis of total health expenses in Inner Mongolia based on ARIMA-GM（1,1） combination model. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(11): 1552-1557.

参考文献

[1] 王高玲,张怡青.基于ARIMA模型的我国卫生总费用趋势及构成预测分析[J].中国卫生统计,2019,36(1):121-125.
[2] 万泉,李涛,柴培培,等.我国个人卫生支出占卫生总费用比重监测评价与预测研究[J].中国卫生经济,2021,40(5):33-36.
[3] 鲍晓露,向国春,史卢少博,等.基于灰色GM(1,1)-SVM组合模型的广东省卫生总费用预测研究[J].现代预防医学,2022,49(5):856-859.
[4] 郭芮绮,胡依,闵淑慧,等.基于VAR和ARIMA模型的中国卫生总费用影响因素及预测分析[J].卫生软科学,2022,36(7):35-39,55.
[5] 丁海峰,李立清.基于ARIMA模型的我国长三角地区卫生总费用时间序列预测分析研究[J].中国医疗管理科学,2022,12(2):4-10.
[6] 胡嘉靖,范艳存,刘思佳,等.基于组合预测模型的内蒙古卫生总费用预测及分析[J].医学与社会,2022,35(12):24-27,34.
[7] 金琦,吴双赢,代婷婷,等.基于结构方程模型的广东省人均卫生费用影响因素研究[J].中国卫生统计,2024,41(1):80-81.
[8] 内蒙古自治区统计局.内蒙古统计年鉴2023[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2023.
[9] ENJA E.Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model[J].Public Sector Economics,2024,48(1):39-56.
[10] 于菲,耿顺利,高建民,等.基于ARIMA和GM(1,1)模型的陕西省个人卫生支出预测[J].中国卫生政策研究,2018,11(7):19-23.
[11] 付潇,何丽莎,赵帅,等.基于灰色马尔可夫模型的天津市卫生总费用预测研究[J].职业与健康,2024,40(5):701-706.
[12] REN W,TARIMO C S,SUN L,et al.The degree of equity and coupling coordination of staff in primary medical and health care institutions in China 2013-2019[J].Int J Equity Health,2021,20(1):236.
[13] 张粝文,李小菊,毛璐,等.基于组合预测模型的新疆生产建设兵团个人卫生支出分析[J].中国卫生事业管理,2021,38(7):511-514.
[14] 朱泉同,高山.四种模型在江苏省卫生总费用趋势预测及构成分析中的比较研究[J].中国卫生统计,2022,39(6):885-889.
[15] 尹亭亭,李志娟,巴桑片多,等.ARIMA乘积季节模型在日喀则市结核病疫情预测中的应用[J].职业与健康,2020,36(5):634-637.
[16] WEI W,WANG G,TAO X,et al.Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of monkeypox using the ARIMA,exponential smoothing,GM(1,1) and LSTM deep learning methods[J].J Gen Virol,2023, 104(4):001839.
[17] 苏凡,巢健茜,张娜,等.应用灰色线性回归组合模型预测江苏省卫生总费用趋势及构成[J].中国卫生事业管理,2023,40(7):539-543.
[18] ABDULSALAM Y,SCHNELLER E.Hospital supply expenses:An important ingredient in Health Services Research[J].Med Care Res Rev.2019,76(2):240-252.
[19] 张加奇,李玲,毛宇凡,等.新征程中我国卫生总费用核算的新特点、新问题及对策思考[J].卫生经济研究,2023,40(6):7-9,12.
[20] 范岚铭,韦峭颖,杨练.基于“卫生费用核算体系2011”的不同共病状态下阿尔茨海默病的筹资、流向、受益人群研究[J].中国卫生经济,2024,43(6):59-63.
[21] 梁冰华,黄李凤.基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的中国医疗卫生资源预测分析[J].现代预防医学,2021,48(20):3655-3659.
[22] 孟庆跃. 卫生经济学[M].北京:人民卫生电子音像出版社,2013:7-8.
[23] 张世翔,黄天翔,冯瀛尹.以高水平互联网医院建设实现医院高质量医疗服务策略研究[J].中国医院,2024,28(7):7-11.
[24] QING W,XIN Z,CAIZHI L.Study on the current situation of the mental health service system in urban and rural communities[J].MEDS Public Health and Preventive Medicine,2023,3(6):7
[25] CAITLIN H,MJ L.Healthcare as asset:Private equity investment and the changing geographies of care in the United States[J].Geoforum,2023:146.
[26] 柴培培,李岩,翟铁民,等.2022年中国卫生总费用核算结果与分析[J].卫生经济研究,2024,41(1):14-19.
[27] 文小才. 中国医疗卫生资源配置中的财政投入制导机制研究[J].经济经纬,2011(1):141-146.
[28] 王存库,汤学军,张学高.英国初级卫生保健制度及其信息化建设初探[J].中国卫生信息管理杂志,2020,17(2):172-175,180.
[29] 锁凌燕,完颜瑞云,陈滔.我国商业健康保险地区发展失衡现状及原因研究[J].保险研究,2015(1):42-53.
[30] CHEN M,LU J,HAO C,et al.Developing challenges in the urbanisation of village doctors in economically developed regions:A survey of 844 village doctors in Changzhou,China[J].Aust J Rural Health, 2021: 29(4).
[31] 苗淦,石福艳,梁益嘉,等.基于优势组合模型的“十三五”期间全国卫生总费用预测研究[J].中国卫生统计,2021,38(2):243-246.
[32] 张少谦. 基于组合模型的甘肃省卫生总费用预测研究[D].唐山:华北理工大学,2019.
[33] 王存库,汤学军,张学高.英国初级卫生保健制度及其信息化建设初探[J].中国卫生信息管理杂志,2020,17(2):172-175,180.