2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病年龄-时期-队列分析

职业与健康 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (22): 3112-3116.

2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病年龄-时期-队列分析

刘天¹, 侯清波¹, 姚梦雷¹, 黄继贵¹, 陈红樱², 赵婧³

1.荆州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所,湖北荆州 434000;
2.湖北省疾病预防控制中心生物制品管理办公室,湖北武汉 430079;
3.中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京 102206

收稿日期:2023-05-21 修回日期:2023-06-27 出版日期:2023-11-15 发布日期:2026-03-26
通信作者: 赵婧,副研究员,E-mail：zhaojing@chinacdc.cn
作者简介:刘天,男,主管医师,主要从事急性传染病防制工作。
基金资助:
中国疾控中心应急中心综合业务管理（23170101）

Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005-2021

LIU Tian¹, HOU Qingbo¹, YAO Menglei¹, HUANG Jigui¹, CHEN Hongying², ZHAO Jing³

1. Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Hubei 434000,China;
2. Biological Products Management Office,Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan Hubei 430079,China;
3. Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China

Received:2023-05-21 Revised:2023-06-27 Online:2023-11-15 Published:2026-03-26
Contact: ZHAO Jing,Associate research fellow,E-mail：zhaojing@chinacdc.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病现状和长期趋势。方法收集2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病率数据、2004—2020年0~9岁出生人口数据,采用描述流行病学方法、Joinpoint回归模型、出生队列分析、年龄-时期-队列（age-period-cohort,APC）分析方法,探讨流行性腮腺炎发病时期、高发年龄和出生年份变化,采用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change,APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change,AAPC）描述流行性腮腺炎发病率随年份变化趋势。结果 2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎累计报告13 298例,年均发病率13.56/10万,2005—2021年总体无趋势变化（AAPC=-0.17%,95%CI：-1.21%~0.87%）,2011—2021年有明显下降趋势（APC=87.11%,95%CI：13.04%~98.09%）。5~9岁年龄组发病率（126.71/10万）最高,其次为10~14岁年龄组（74.47/10万）,各年份发病率年龄分布一致,2004—2012年荆州市出生儿童0~9岁发病率随出生年份增加而下降（r_s=-0.97,P<0.01）。APC分析结果显示,荆州市0~9岁儿童流行性腮腺炎高发年龄为5~6和9岁;高发年份为2010—2011年;1998—2007年出生队列发病风险呈下降趋势,2008—2012年出生队列发病风险维持不变,2012—2019年出生队列发病风险略有下降。结论自2008年1剂次麻疹-腮腺炎-风疹（measles-mumps-rubella,MMR）疫苗纳入国家扩大免疫规划,降低了荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病率,但降低作用有限。

关键词: 流行性腮腺炎, 年龄, 出生队列, 年龄-时期-队列分析, 疫苗

Abstract: Objective To understand the current status and long-term trend of mumps incidence in Jinghzou City from 2005 to 2021. Methods The incidence data of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005 to 2021 and the birth population data of 0-9 years old from 2004 to 2020 were collected. The descriptive epidemiological methods,Joinpoint regression models,birth cohort analysis,and age-period-cohort（APC） analysis were used to analyze the period of incidence of mumps,the age of high incidence,and the birth year change. The annual percentage change（APC） and average annual percentage change（AAPC） were used to describe the trend of mumps incidence by year. Results A total of 13 298 cases of mumps were reported in Jingzhou City from 2005 to 2021,with an average annual incidence of 13.56/100 000. There was no overall trend change in the incidence of mumps from 2005 to 2021（AAPC=-0.17%,95%CI：-1.21%-0.87%）,and there was a significant downward trend from 2011 to 2021（APC=87.11%,95%CI：13.04 %-98.09%）. The incidence in 5-9 year-old age group was the highest（126.71/100 000）,followed by the10-14 year-old age group（74.47/100 000）. The age distribution was consistent across years. The incidence rate of children aged 0-9 years old born in Jingzhou City from 2004 to 2012 decreased with the increase of birth year（r_s=-0.97,P<0.01）. The results of APC model analysis showed that the age of high incidence of mumps in children aged 0-9 years old in Jingzhou City was 5-6 and 9 years old. The year with the highest incidence of mumps was 2010 to 2011. The incidence risk of the birth cohort from 1998 to 2007 showed a downward trend,the incidence risk of the birth cohort from 2008 to 2012 remained unchanged,and the incidence risk of the birth cohort from 2012 to 2019 decreased slightly. Conclusion Since 2008,the one-dose measles-mumps-rubella（MMR） vaccine has been included in the national expanded immunization program,which has reduced the incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City,but the reduction effect is limited.

Key words: Mumps, Age, Birth cohort, Age-period-cohort analysis, Vaccine

中图分类号:

R181.8⁺1

刘天, 侯清波, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵, 陈红樱, 赵婧. 2005—2021年荆州市流行性腮腺炎发病年龄-时期-队列分析. [J]职业与健康, 2023, 39(22): 3112-3116.

LIU Tian, HOU Qingbo, YAO Menglei, HUANG Jigui, CHEN Hongying, ZHAO Jing. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence of mumps in Jingzhou City from 2005-2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(22): 3112-3116.

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