2010—2023年重庆市九龙坡区手足口病流行趋势及超额发病数估计

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (16): 2245-2249.

2010—2023年重庆市九龙坡区手足口病流行趋势及超额发病数估计

周慧娴, 邓春燕, 李闰冰, 龙前进

重庆市九龙坡区疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,重庆 400039

收稿日期:2024-12-27 修回日期:2025-01-15 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-12-13
通信作者: 龙前进,主任医师,E-mail：394112040@qq.com
作者简介:周慧娴,女,医师,主要从事急性传染病防制工作。
基金资助:
重庆市公共卫生重点专科（学科）建设资助项目（渝卫办发[2023]81号）; 重庆市九龙坡区公共卫生重点学科和实验室建设经费资助项目（九龙坡卫办发[2023]63号）

Prevalence trend and estimated excess cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing from 2010 to 2023

ZHOU Huixian, DENG Chunyan, LI Runbing, LONG Qianjin

Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiulongpo District,Chongqing 400039,China

Received:2024-12-27 Revised:2025-01-15 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-12-13
Contact: LONG Qianjin,Chief physician,E-mail：394112040@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的通过分析重庆市九龙坡区手足口病（hand,foot and mouth disease,HFMD）发病趋势,估计流行期和超额发病数,为手足口病防制工作提供数据支撑和决策依据。方法从“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”中导出2010—2023年重庆市九龙坡区HFMD每月发病数,采用描述流行病学研究方法分析疾病流行特征,调整Serfling回归模型判定流行期和估计超额发病数。结果 2010—2023年重庆市九龙坡区累计报告HFMD 45 745例,年平均报告发病率为272.10/10万。男女性别比为1.40∶1;发病年龄主要集中在 0~5岁,以 1~2岁组发病率最高（年均报告发病率为9 797.73/10 万）;发病人群主要为散居儿童和幼托儿童;发病地区集中在城区。拟合调整Serfling回归模型决定系数为0.635,2010—2023年HFMD流行期共89个月,累计超额发病21 310例,流行期主要集中在3—6月的春夏季与9—次年1月的秋冬季。结论重庆市九龙坡区作为HFMD的重点防控区域,相关部门应进一步提高诊断能力、扩大疫苗接种和有针对性的做好预防性措施,并结合季节性高发和疾病谱特点以控制HFMD的传播与流行。

关键词: 手足口病, 流行趋势, 超额发病数

Abstract: Objective By analyzing the trend of hand,foot and mouth disease（HFMD） incidence in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing,to estimate epidemic period and excess incidence,and provide data support and decision-making basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The monthly cases of HFMD in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing were derived from the "China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention" from 2010 to 2023,the descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the disease,and the adjusted Serfling regression model was used to determine the epidemiological period and estimate the number of excess cases. Results From 2010 to 2023,a total of 45 745 cases of HFMD were reported in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing,with an average annual incidence rate of 272.10/100 000. The male-to-female sex ratio was 1.40∶1; the age of onset of the disease was mainly concentrated in the age group of 0-5 years old,with the highest incidence rate in the age group of 1-2 years old（annual average reported incidence rate of 9 797.73/100 000）. The population of the disease was mainly scattered children and preschool children. The area of onset of the disease was concentrated in the urban area. The coefficient of determination of the fit-adjusted Serfling regression model was 0.635,and the total number of HFMD epidemics from 2010 to 2023 was 89 months,with a cumulative excess of 21 310 cases,and the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the spring and summer（March to June） and the autumn and winter（September to January of the following year）. Conclusion Jiulongpo District in Chongqing should be the key prevention and control area of HFMD,and the relevant departments should further improve the diagnostic capacity,expand vaccination and targeted preventive measures,as well as combining the seasonal high incidence and the characteristics of the disease spectrum,so as to control the spread and prevalence of HFMD.

Key words: Hand, foot and mouth disease, Epidemic trend, Excess cases

中图分类号:

R181.8⁺1

周慧娴, 邓春燕, 李闰冰, 龙前进. 2010—2023年重庆市九龙坡区手足口病流行趋势及超额发病数估计. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(16): 2245-2249.

ZHOU Huixian, DENG Chunyan, LI Runbing, LONG Qianjin. Prevalence trend and estimated excess cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing from 2010 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(16): 2245-2249.

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