Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and long-term trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome（HFRS） in Changchun，understand its development patterns and provide a scientific basis for adjusting future prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on individual HFRS cases in Changchun City from 2013 to 2024 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System，and analyze the epidemiological characteristics using descriptive epidemiological methods. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend of HFRS in Changchun from 2013 to 2024. Results From 2013 to 2024，a total of 705 HFRS cases and the one fatal case were reported in Changchun，and the average annual incidence rate was 0.71/100 000，the incidence showed a seasonal bimodal distribution. The number of male cases was more than that of female ones，with a male to female ration of 4.04 ∶ 1. The cases mainly occurred in farmers and the unemployed（77.45%） aged 25-<60 years（77.16%）. The cases were reported in all counties（city，district），mainly concentrated in Yushu City，Nongan County，Dehui City，Jiutai District and Nanguan District，accounting for 60.03% of the total number of cases. The Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declining trend in HFRS cases incidence rate reported in Changchun from 2013 to 2024，2020 was the turning point among the trend change of the average annual incidence rate，2013-2020 showed a slight fluctuation downward trend（β₁=-0.253，P<0.01），and 2020-2024 showed a stable downward trend（β₂=-0.038，P<0.01），with statistically significant differences. The annual incidence of diseases in both males and females showed a downward trend，and the rate of change was not consistent，with males being higher than females. Taking 45-<50 years old as the turning point among the trend change of average annual reported incidence rate，the incidence of 0-<20 years old to 45-<50 years old group showed an upward trend（β₁=0.024，P<0.01），and the incidence of 45-<50 years old to ≥60 years old group showed a downward trend（β₂=-0.047，P<0.05），with statistically significant differences. Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Changchun City showed a downward trend and a bimodal distribution in spring and autumn from 2013 to 2024. The incidence of HFRS in counties was more than that in urban areas，and geographical trend for the disease includes a notable shift from counties to urban areas. Middle aged and elderly people are the main affected population. In the future，relevant departments should strengthen the monitoring and early warning work of HFRS，adjusted prevention and control measures in a targeted manner，and maintained the incidence of HFRS at a low and stable level.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Epidemiological characteristics, Trend analysis, Incidence rate, Joinpoint regression model