2015—2021年新疆部分地区大气污染物与肺癌发病人数的时间序列关联分析

职业与健康 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (17): 2310-2317.

2015—2021年新疆部分地区大气污染物与肺癌发病人数的时间序列关联分析

巢晓琴^1,2, 张荣³, 阿迪拉·苏力旦³, 夏木斯叶·木依都力³, 鲁英^2,4, 王希江^2,3

1.新疆医科大学省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054;
2.新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054;
3.新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心,新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
4.海南医学院,海南海口 571199

收稿日期:2023-02-11 修回日期:2023-03-07 出版日期:2023-09-01 发布日期:2026-03-25
通信作者: 鲁英,副教授,E-mail：316139862@qq.com;王希江,主任医师,E-mail：2500681817@qq.com
作者简介:巢晓琴,女,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为劳动卫生与环境卫生学。
基金资助:
省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室开放课题资助项目（SKL-HIDCA-2022-JZ10）

Time series association analysis of air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in some regions of Xinjiang from 2015-2021

CHAO Xiaoqin^1,2, ZHANG Rong³, Adila Sulidan³, Xiamusiye Muyiduli³, LU Ying^2,4, WANG Xijiang^2,3

1. State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis,Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830054,China;
2. School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830054,China;
3. Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi Xinjiang 830002,China;
4. Hainan Medical College,Haikou Hainan 571199,China

Received:2023-02-11 Revised:2023-03-07 Online:2023-09-01 Published:2026-03-25
Contact: LU Ying,Associate Professor,E-mail：316139862@qq.com;WANG Xijiang,Chief Physician,E-mail：2500681817@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的探讨新疆多地区大气污染物与肺癌发病的关联性及污染物对肺癌发病的滞后效应,并分析地区间的效应差异。方法收集乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、和田地区2015年1月1日—2021年12月31日之间的细颗粒物（fine particles,PM_2.5）、可吸入颗粒物（inhalable particles,PM₁₀）、NO₂、SO₂、CO、臭氧日最大 8 h 平均浓度（O_{3-8 h}）、气象因素以及居民肺癌发病资料,运用时间序列的广义相加泊松回归模型控制长期趋势、气象因素和星期几效应等因素的影响后,定量分析单污染物模型和双污染物模型中大气污染物与肺癌发病的关联性。结果在单污染物模型中,乌鲁木齐市PM₁₀在累积滞后02 d（Lag 02）时,对肺癌发病效应值最大为1.30%（95%CI：0.56%~2.05%）,NO₂在Lag 04时效应值最大为15.40%（95%CI：8.33%~22.94%）,CO在Lag 02时效应值最大为23.84%（95%CI：7.29%~42.94%）;克拉玛依市PM₁₀、O_{3-8 h}暴露对肺癌每日发病人数的效应值在滞后6、2 d（Lag 6、Lag 2）最大,为1.89%（95%CI：0.12%~3.70%）和5.93%（95%CI：0.46%~11.69%）;和田地区PM_2.5、PM₁₀暴露对肺癌发病的滞后效应在滞后当日和Lag 5最大,为1.72%（95%CI：0.14%~3.32%）和0.68%（95%CI：0.23%~1.14%）。在双污染物模型中,乌鲁木齐市PM₁₀、NO₂和CO分别与其余5种污染物对肺癌发病影响具有协同效应。克拉玛依市PM₁₀与PM_2.5、NO₂和O_{3-8 h}对肺癌发病影响具有协同效应,不受SO₂和CO的影响;O_{3-8 h}与其余5种污染物具有协同效应。和田地区PM_2.5与SO₂、NO₂和CO对肺癌发病影响具有协同效应,而调整PM₁₀和O_{3-8 h}后,PM_2.5对肺癌效应消失;PM₁₀与PM_2.5、O_{3-8 h}具有联合效应,不受SO₂、NO₂和CO的影响。结论大气污染物暴露可导致居民肺癌发病风险的增加,这种风险在不同地区间存在差异。

关键词: 大气污染物, 肺癌, 时间序列分析, 广义相加模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in multiple regions of Xinjiang and the lag effect of pollutants on lung cancer incidence,and analyze the effect differences between regions. Method The data of fine particles（PM_2.5）,inhalable particles（PM₁₀）,NO₂,SO₂,CO,ozone daily maximum 8-h average concentration（O_{3-8 h}）,meteorological factors and lung cancer incidence of residents in Urumqi,Karamay and Hotan from January 1,2015 to December 31,2021 were collected. The generalized additive Poisson regression model of time series was used to control the long-term trend after the influence of meteorological factors and day of the week effect,the correlation between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in single pollutant model and two pollutant model was quantitatively analyzed. Results In the single pollutant model,the maximum effect value of PM₁₀ on lung cancer incidence was 1.30%（95%CI：0.56%-2.05%） in Urumqi with a cumulative lag of 2 days（lag 02）,while the maximum effect value of NO₂ was 15.40%（95%CI：8.33%-22.94%） in lag 04,and the maximum effect value of CO was 23.84%（95%CI：7.29%-42.94%） in lag 02;The effect value of PM₁₀,O_{3-8 h} exposure on the daily incidence of lung cancer in karamay was 1.89%（95%CI：0.12%-3.70%） and 5.93%（95%CI：0.46%-11.69%） when lag 6 and 2 days（lag 6 and lag 2）;The lag effect of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ exposure on lung cancer incidence in Hotan was the largest on the lag day and lag 05,with 1.72%（95%CI：0.14%-3.32%） and 0.68%（95%CI：0.23%-1.14%）. In the two pollutant model,PM₁₀,NO₂ and CO in Urumqi had synergistic effects with the other five pollutants on lung cancer incidence. PM₁₀,PM_2.5,NO₂ and O_{3-8 h} in Karamay had a synergistic effect on the incidence of lung cancer,which was not affected by SO₂ and CO;O_{3-8 h} had synergistic effect with the other five pollutants. PM_2.5 and SO₂,NO₂ and CO in Hotan had a synergistic effect on the incidence of lung cancer,while adjusting PM₁₀ and O_{3-8 h},the effect of PM_2.5 on lung cancer disappeared;PM₁₀,PM_2.5,O_{3-8 h} had a combined effect,which was not affected by SO₂,NO₂ and CO. Conclusion Exposure to air pollutants can lead to an increase in the risk of lung cancer among residents,and this risk varies among different regions.

Key words: Atmospheric pollutants, Lung cancer, Time series analysis, Generalized additive model

中图分类号:

R181.3⁺4

巢晓琴, 张荣, 阿迪拉·苏力旦, 夏木斯叶·木依都力, 鲁英, 王希江. 2015—2021年新疆部分地区大气污染物与肺癌发病人数的时间序列关联分析. [J]职业与健康, 2023, 39(17): 2310-2317.

CHAO Xiaoqin, ZHANG Rong, Adila Sulidan, Xiamusiye Muyiduli, LU Ying, WANG Xijiang. Time series association analysis of air pollutants and lung cancer incidence in some regions of Xinjiang from 2015-2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2023, 39(17): 2310-2317.

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