2014—2021年北京市丰台区主要慢性病早死概率及早死寿命损失分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2014—2021年北京市丰台区4类慢性病（心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病及糖尿病,以下称主要慢性病）死亡率、早死概率及其变化趋势,为北京市丰台区慢性病防控提供数据支持。方法计算2014—2021年北京市丰台区户籍居民主要慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率、减寿年数等指标,结合Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percent change,AAPC）计算早死概率的平均增长速度,并以2025年和2030年的控制目标作为标准,预测和评估主要慢性病早死概率是否达标。结果 2014—2021年北京市丰台区30~69岁人群主要慢性病粗死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=1.63%,P<0.05）,标化死亡率女性呈下降趋势（AAPC=-3.20%,P<0.05）。主要慢性病占慢性病的死亡比例呈下降趋势（AAPC=-0.07%,P<0.05）。主要慢性病占总死亡人数的比例呈上升趋势（AAPC=1.28,P<0.05）。慢性病患者70岁以前的死亡比例呈下降趋势（AAPC=-0.91,P<0.05）。2014—2021年北京市丰台区户籍人口主要慢性病早死概率在9.96%~11.30%间波动,变化趋势差异无统计学意义（AAPC=-0.98%,P>0.05）,女性主要慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-4.97%,P<0.05）。相同年份中,男性主要慢性病早死概率高于女性,恶性肿瘤和心脑血管疾病的早死概率高于慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病。2014—2021年北京市丰台区30~69岁户籍居民因主要慢性病共造成潜在寿命损失（potential years of life lost,PYLL）379 806.13人年,同一年份相同主要慢性病,男性的PYLL均高于女性;2014—2021年北京市丰台区30~69岁户籍居民主要慢性病的平均寿命损失（average years of life lost,AYLL）为22.47年,同一年份相同主要慢性病,女性的AYLL均高于男性。按照2014—2021年北京市丰台区早死概率的年均变化速度,2025年女性早死概率的预测值可达到“2025年慢性病中长期规划”目标值的要求,女性2030年早死概率的预测值可达到 “健康中国2030”目标值的要求。全人群早死概率2030年的预测值可达到“健康北京2030”目标值的要求。结论男性是北京市丰台区主要慢性病的重点干预人群,应做好相关危险因素的监测和干预,降低早死概率。2014—2021年北京市丰台区30~69岁户籍居民主要慢性病的AYLL女性高于男性,应重点关注低年龄组女性。

关键词: 主要慢性病, 早死概率, 早死寿命损失

Abstract: Objective To analyze the change trend of mortality and premature mortality caused by four major noncommunicable diseases（cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes,hereinafter referred to as major chronic diseases） in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021,so as to provide data support for chronic disease prevention and control in Fengtai District of Beijing. Methods The crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,premature mortality and average years of life lost of registered residents in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021 were calculated,and joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the time trend by which the average annual percentage change（AAPC） was evaluated. And the average increasing rate of premature mortality was also estimated to verify whether the predicated values meet the standard ones in year 2025 and 2030. Results During 2014-2021,the crude mortality rate of major chronic diseases among 30-69 year-old population in Fengtai District of Beijing was on the rise（AAPC=1.63%,P<0.05）,while the standardized mortality rates in females showed a decreasing trend（AAPC=-3.20%,P<0.05）. The proportion of deaths caused by major chronic diseases to deaths caused by chronic diseases showed upward trend（AAPC=-0.07%,P<0.05）. The proportion of deaths caused by major chronic diseases to total deaths was on the rise（AAPC=1.28,P<0.05）. The proportion of deaths caused by chronic diseases before 70 years old showed a downward trend（AAPC=-0.91,P<0.05）. The premature mortality probability of major chronic diseases reflected in the range of 9.96% to 11.30% among registered residents in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021,and the trend was not statistically significant（AAPC=-0.98%,P>0.05）. The premature mortality probability of major chronic diseases in females showed a decreasing trend（AAPC=-4.97%,P<0.05）. In the same year,the premature mortality probability in males was higher than that in females,and the premature mortality probabilities in malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases were higher than those in chronic respiratory and diabetes mellitus. The potential years of life lost（PYLL） among 30-69 year-old registered residents in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021 was 379 806.13 person-year. The PYLL of homogeneous chronic diseases in the same year,were higher in men than in women. The average years of life lost（AYLL） among 30-69 year-old registered residents in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021 was 22.47 years. The AYLL of homogeneous chronic diseases in the same year,were higher in men than in women. According to the annual average change rate of premature mortality probability in Fengtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021,the predicted value of premature mortality probability in women in 2025 can meet the requirements of the "China's medium and long term plan for the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases（2025）" target value,while the predicted value of premature mortality probability in women in 2030 can meet the requirements of the "healthy China 2030" target value. The predicted value of premature mortality probability for the entire population by 2030 can meet the requirements of the "Healthy Beijing 2030" target value. Conclusion Males are the vital groups in the prevention and treatment of major chronic diseases in Fengtai District of Beijing. It is imperious to improve the monitoring and intervention of related risk factors to reduce the premature mortality probability. Among 30-69 year-old registered residents in Fengtai District of Beijing,the AYLL caused by major chronic diseases in females is higher than that in males,so special attention should be paid to women in the younger age group.

Key words: Major chronic diseases, Premature mortality probability, Years of life lost of premature mortality

中图分类号:

R181.3

武宇晨, 信振江, 肖文, 陈黎黎, 马健桐, 谢俊卿. 2014—2021年北京市丰台区主要慢性病早死概率及早死寿命损失分析. [J]职业与健康, 2024, 40(13): 1793-1799.

WU Yuchen, XIN Zhenjiang, XIAO Wen, CHEN Lili, MA Jiantong, XIE Junqing. Analysis on probability and years of life lost from premature mortality caused by major chronic diseases in Feingtai District of Beijing from 2014 to 2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2024, 40(13): 1793-1799.

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