2010—2022年佳木斯市麻疹流行特征及时空聚集性

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的监测分析佳木斯市麻疹发病的流行病学特征和时空聚集性,探讨消除麻疹策略。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2010—2022年佳木斯市麻疹报告病例资料,采用描述流行病学方法分析三间分布特征,使用ArcGIS 10.2 软件进行空间自相关分析,应用SaTScan 9.7 软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2010—2022年佳木斯市共报告麻疹病例637例,年均发病率为2.06/10万,整体呈下降趋势（χ²=3 613.27,P<0.05）。病例主要集中在冬春季（1—5月）,共535例,占比83.99%。报告病例数居前4位的县区分别是桦南县、富锦市、郊区和向阳区,共报告麻疹病例403例,占比63.27%。麻疹病例集中分布在<18月龄和≥15岁人群,共509例,占79.91%。36.42%的病例无明确麻疹成分疫苗接种史,32.65%的病例接种史不详。全局空间自相关分析显示,2010年存在空间自相关关系,Moran’s I=0.296,Z=1.71,P<0.05;局部空间自相关分析显示,共扫描到4个高-高聚集区,分别是郊区、向阳区、前进区、东风区;2个低-低聚集区,分别为东风区和同江市。时空扫描分析结果显示,佳木斯市的东风区、前进区、郊区和桦南县4个县区为一级聚集区,聚集时间为2010年,发病人数219人。结论麻疹发病总体保持低发病水平,但距离消除麻疹还有一段距离,应继续加强适龄儿童麻疹疫苗的接种工作,麻疹发病存在时空聚集性,城区是麻疹防控的重点区域。

关键词: 麻疹, 流行病学, 时空扫描分析, 空间自相关

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of measles in Jiamusi City,and to explore the strategy for eliminating measles. Methods The data of measles reported cases in Jiamusi City from 2010 to 2022 were collected by the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution characteristics of three. The ArcGIS 10.2 software was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis,and the SaTScan 9.7 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. Results From 2010 to 2022,a total of 637 measles cases were reported in Jiamusi City,with an average annual incidence of 2.06/100 000,showing a downward trend（χ²=3 613.27,P<0.05）. The cases were mainly concentrated in winter and spring（January to May）,with a total of 535 cases,accounting for 83.99%. The top four counties and districts with the highest number of reported cases were Huannan County,Fujin City,Suburban District and Xiangyang District,with a total of 403 reported cases of measles,accounting for 63.27%. Measles cases were concentrated in children less than 1.5 years old and people over 15 years old,with a total of 509 cases,accounting for 79.91%. 36.42% of the cases had no clear history of measles vaccine,and 32.65% of the cases had no history of measles vaccine. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation in 2010,Moran's I=0.296,Z=1.71,P<0.05. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a total of four high-high clustering areas were scanned,namely Suburban District,Xiangyang District,Qianjin District and Dongfeng District. There were two low-low clustering areas,namely Dongfeng District and Tongjiang City. The results of spatiotemporal scanning showed that Dongfeng District,Qianjin District,Suburban District,and Huanan County in Jiamusi City were the first level cluster area,with a gathering time of 2010 and 219 cases. Conclusion The overall incidence of measles remains at a low level,but there is still a long way to go before eliminating measles. It is necessary to continue to strengthen the vaccination of eligible children against measles. The incidence of measles is spatially and temporally clustered,and urban areas are the key areas for measles prevention and control.

Key words: Measles, Epidemiology, Spatiotemporal scanning analysis, Spatial autocorrelation

中图分类号:

R181.8⁺1

李明春, 吴晓敏, 王凯燕, 肖虹, 许宏霞. 2010—2022年佳木斯市麻疹流行特征及时空聚集性. [J]职业与健康, 2024, 40(18): 2515-2519.

LI Mingchun, WU Xiaomin, WANG Kaiyan, XIAO Hong, XU Hongxi. Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of measles in Jiamusi City from 2010 to 2022. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2024, 40(18): 2515-2519.

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