关键词: 丙型病毒性肝炎, 流行特征, 预测, 发病率

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of viral hepatitis C in Shinan District of Qingdao City,predict the incidence trend,and provide reference for promoting the elimination of hepatitis C in Qingdao City. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C cases reported in Shinan District from the Communicable Disease Surveillance System in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2008 to 2023. The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) time series model was established to predict the crude incidence rate of hepatitis C from 2024 to 2028. Results The proportion of confirmed cases of hepatitis C in Shinan District from 2008 to 2023 was 80.06%,which meant that the nucleic acid testing rate of antibody positive individuals was less than 90%.The reported standardized incidence rate showed an overall increasing trend from 2008 to 2023[average annual percent change(AAPC)=7.58%,P<0.01],with the fastest growth occurred from 2014 to 2017[annual percent change(APC)=37.22%,P<0.05].There was no statistically significant difference in the average annual reported crude incidence rate,the standardized incidence rate and the overall trend of the inter group comparison parallelism between men and women(all P>0.05). The annual average reported crude incidence rate of each age group showed an upward trend(χ2trend=185.093,P<0.01).People with high annual average reported crude incidence rate and composition ratio were concentrated in the 50?<65 and 65?<80 age groups,and the annual average reported crude incidence rate of these two age groups was also growing rapidly. The occupational distribution was mainly composed of retirees,house workers and the unemployment.There was a statistically significant difference in the average annual reported crude incidence rate among the western,central and eastern regions of Shinan District(χ2=6.629,P<0.05),and the average annual reported crude incidence rate and incidence in the western region were the highest.ARIMA model predicted that the crude incidence rate of hepatitis C reported from 2024 to 2028 might still rise slowly. Conclusion The prevention and control of hepatitis C in Shinan District of Qingdao should focus on the western area,people aged 50?<80,retired and household workers and unemployed people to carry out publicity and education.At the same time,the awareness of "full coverage of nucleic acid testing for antibody positive people" in medical institutions should be strengthened to improve the quality of case reports. The ARIMA model should also be used to predict the reported crude incidence rate of hepatitis C,providing scientific reference for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C,and helping to achieve the goal of eliminating the public health hazards of hepatitis C.

Key words: Viral Hepatitis C, Epidemic characteristics, Prediction, Incidence rate