2009—2023年深圳市盐田区儿童水痘发病趋势分析及预测

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 1390-1394.

2009—2023年深圳市盐田区儿童水痘发病趋势分析及预测

林凯, 刘雅文, 李标, 徐震东, 黄仁湛, 李雪梅

深圳市盐田区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科,广东深圳 518000

收稿日期:2024-06-25 修回日期:2024-09-20 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-12-18
通信作者: 李雪梅,副主任医师,E-mail：182236706@qq.com
作者简介:林凯,男,主管医师,主要从事传染病防控工作。

Trend analysis and prediction of varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023

LIN Kai, LIU Yawen, LI Biao, XU Zhendong, HUANG Renzhan, LI Xuemei

Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Department,Yantian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518000,China

Received:2024-06-25 Revised:2024-09-20 Online:2025-05-15 Published:2025-12-18
Contact: LI Xuemei,Associate chief physician,E-mail：182236706@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2009—2023年深圳市盐田区儿童水痘发病趋势,剖析年龄、时期、队列及免疫策略因素对发病的影响。方法采用Joinpoint回归模型对发病率变化趋势进行分析,建立年龄-时期-队列模型从年龄、时期、队列3个维度分析不同影响因素对水痘发病的影响,建立GM（1,1）灰色预测模型对2024—2026年发病率进行预测。结果 2009—2023年盐田区儿童水痘年均发病率为850.02/10万,Joinpoint回归模型拟合显示,2009—2023年水痘发病率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-15.28,P<0.01）,转折点为2019年。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,水痘发病率总体呈下降趋势（净漂移值<0）,0~<5、5~<10岁发病均呈下降趋势（局部漂移值<0）,10~<15岁呈上升趋势（局部漂移值>0）,年龄、时期及队列因素均对水痘发病有影响：水痘的发病率随着年龄上升呈“先升后降”趋势,5~<10岁发病率最高（1 352.28/10万）;2019—2023年发病风险均最低,2015—2019年出生队列人群发病风险均最低。GM（1,1）模型预测显示,2024—2026年发病率呈下降趋势。结论 2009—2023年深圳市盐田区儿童水痘发病呈下降趋势,发病具有显著的年龄-时期-队列效应,2019年实施免费接种2剂次水痘减毒活疫苗的免疫策略后,发病显著下降,应持续推进该策略,以进一步降低水痘发病传播风险。

关键词: 水痘, 儿童, 流行特征, Joinpoint回归模型, 年龄-时期-队列模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the trend in varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023,analyze the effect of age,period,cohort,and immunization strategy on the incidence. Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to explore the incidence trend and the age-period-cohort model was established to analyze the effects of age,period,and cohort effect on varicella incidence,and GM（1,1） model was established to predict incidence from 2024 to 2026. Results The annual incidence rate of varicella among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City was 850.02/100 000 from 2009 to 2023. The Joinpoint regression showed a decreasing trend in varicellaincidence rate from 2009 to 2023（AAPC=-15.28,P<0.01）,with a turning point in 2019.The age-period-cohort model revealed that the overall incidence rate of varicella in children showed a decreasing trend（net drift value <0）. The incidence rates of 0-<5 years old and 5-<10 years old showed a decreasing trend（local drift value <0）,while the incidence rate of 10-<15 years old showed an increasing trend（local drift value >0）. The factors of age,period and cohort all had an impact on the incidence of varicella. The incidence of varicella trended upward and then downward with age,with the highest incidence rate（1 352.28/100 000） at 5~<10 years old of age. The period effect showed the lowest incidence risk during 2019-2023,and the cohort effect found the lowest incidence risk in 2015-2019 birth cohort.GM （1,1） model prediction showed a decreasing trend in incidence from 2024 to 2026. Conclusions There is a decreasing trend in varicella incidencea mong children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023,with a significant age-period-cohort effect. A significant decrease in incidence is found after the implementation of the immunization strategy of a free 2-dose varicella vaccine in 2019,which should be continued to further reduce the varicella morbidity transmission risk.

Key words: Varicella, Children, Epidemiological characteristic, Joinpoint model, Age-period-cohort model

中图分类号:

R181.8⁺1

林凯, 刘雅文, 李标, 徐震东, 黄仁湛, 李雪梅. 2009—2023年深圳市盐田区儿童水痘发病趋势分析及预测. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(10): 1390-1394.

LIN Kai, LIU Yawen, LI Biao, XU Zhendong, HUANG Renzhan, LI Xuemei. Trend analysis and prediction of varicella incidence among children in Yantian District of Shenzhen City from 2009 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(10): 1390-1394.

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