2018—2023年武汉市高温中暑流行特征与气象因子的潜在关联

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 1395-1400.

2018—2023年武汉市高温中暑流行特征与气象因子的潜在关联

何芳, 张成, 陈振龙, 梁娇君

武汉市职业病防治院职业卫生科,湖北武汉 430015

收稿日期:2024-09-22 修回日期:2024-10-12 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-12-18
通信作者: 梁娇君,副主任医师,E-mail：63140338@qq.com
作者简介:何芳,女,主管医师,主要从事职业卫生工作。

Potential correlation between epidemiological characteristics and meteorological factors of heatstroke in Wuhan from 2018 to 2023

HE Fang, ZHANG Cheng, CHEN Zhenlong, LIANG Jiaojun

Department of Occupational Health,Wuhan Prevention and Treatment Center for Occupational Diseases,Wuhan,Hubei 430015,China

Received:2024-09-22 Revised:2024-10-12 Online:2025-05-15 Published:2025-12-18
Contact: LIANG Jiaojun,Associate chief physician,E-mail：63140338@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的研究武汉市高温中暑流行特征,为监测预警提供依据。方法描述2018—2023年武汉市高温中暑病例的基本分布,研究中暑与气象因子间的关系,揭示中暑发生的规律。结果 2018—2023年6—9月,武汉市报告中暑病例4 156例,死亡53例,病死率1.3%,病死率呈逐步下降趋势。≥65岁、高温日是重症发生的危险因素（均P<0.05）,女性、重症中暑、≥65岁是中暑死亡的危险因素（均P<0.05）,年龄因素在中暑、重症和死亡发生的过程中起着至关重要的作用。中暑以7—8月高发,历年病例峰值均出现在相应高温热浪的起始期,高温暴露可快速引起中暑发生。热浪期相对于参考期的中暑风险显著升高（RR>1）,中暑的累积风险随着热浪持续时间的增加而增加。中暑病例与日均气温（r=0.855,P<0.01）、日最高气温（r=0.812,P<0.01）、高温日天数（r=0.667,P<0.01）呈正相关,与日相对湿度（r=-0.379,P<0.01）呈负相关。日最高气温、日均气温引起中暑的阈值分别为34.49 ℃（95%CI：33.92~35.13,R²=0.554）、30.66 ℃（95%CI：29.47~31.70,R²=0.666）,突破上述阈值后中暑病例数明显增多。结论高温日、≥65岁是重症发生的危险因素,女性、重症中暑、≥65岁是中暑死亡的危险因素,日最高气温、日均气温引起中暑的阈值分别为34.49和30.66 ℃,高温热浪期中暑风险显著增高。

关键词: 高温, 中暑, 死亡, 气象, 阈值

Abstract: Objective To study the epidemic characteristics of heatstroke in Wuhan,and provide a basis for monitoring and early warning. Methods Describe the basic distribution of heatstroke cases in Wuhan from 2018 to 2023,study the relationship between heatstroke and meteorological factors,and reveal the patterns of heatstroke. Results From June to September 2018 to 2023,a total of 4 156 cases of heatstroke were reported in Wuhan,including 53 deaths,the mortality rate was 1.3%,showing a gradually decreasing trend. Age ≥65 years old and high temperature days were risk factors for severe heatstroke（both P<0.05）,while females,severe heatstroke,and ≥65 years old were risk factors for heatstroke death（all P<0.05）. Age played a crucial role in the occurrence of heatstroke,severe heatstroke,and death. Heatstroke occurred most frequently in July-August,and the peak of cases occurred at the beginning of the heatwaves. High temperature exposure could quickly cause heatstroke. The risk of heatstroke significantly increased during the heatwave period compared to the reference period（RR>1）,and the cumulative risk of heatstroke increased with the duration of the heatwave. The cases of heatstroke were positively correlated with daily average temperature （r=0.855,P<0.01）,daily maximum temperature（r=0.812,P<0.01）,and number of days with high temperatures（r=0.667,P<0.01）,and negatively correlated with daily relative humidity（r=-0.379,P<0.01）. The thresholds for heatstroke caused by daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature were 34.49 ℃（95%CI：33.92-35.13,R²=0.554） and 30.66 ℃（95%CI：29.47-31.70,R²=0.666）,respectively. After breaking the above thresholds,the number of heatstroke cases increased significantly. Conclusion High temperature days and age ≥65 years old are risk factors for severe heatstroke,while females,severe heatstroke,and ≥65 years old are risk factors for heatstroke death. The thresholds for heatstroke caused by daily maximum temperature and daily average temperature are 34.49 and 30.66 ℃,respectively. The risk of heatstroke significantly increases during high temperature heatwaves.

Key words: High temperature, Heatstroke, Death, Meteorology, Threshold

中图分类号:

R181.3⁺4

何芳, 张成, 陈振龙, 梁娇君. 2018—2023年武汉市高温中暑流行特征与气象因子的潜在关联. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(10): 1395-1400.

HE Fang, ZHANG Cheng, CHEN Zhenlong, LIANG Jiaojun. Potential correlation between epidemiological characteristics and meteorological factors of heatstroke in Wuhan from 2018 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(10): 1395-1400.

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