关键词: 大气颗粒物, 呼吸系统疾病, 泊松广义线性模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze the relationship between short-term exposure to atmospheric particulates and death from respiratory disease in Karamay. Methods The data on daily mean concentrations of atmospheric particulate matter and mortality from respiratory diseases in Karamay from 2014 to 2019 were collected.The Poisson generalized linear model was used,and the data were stratified by sex and age,to investigate the effect of short-term exposure to fine particulate matter（PM_2.5） and inhalable particles（PM₁₀） on mortality from respiratory disease. Results Overall,the association between atmospheric particulate matter （PM_2.5,PM₁₀） and disease mortality was the highest when Lag6 and Lag0,with 4.77%（95% CI：2.27-7.26） and 2.79%（95%CI：1.35-4.24）,respectively.According to gender group,PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ had the highest correlation in males when Lag6 and Lag0,with 1.42%（95%CI：1.02%-1.82%）,4.83%（95%CI：1.70%-7.97%） respectively,while they had the highest correlation in females when Lag0 and Lag4,with 6.37%（95%CI：2.42%-10.32%） and 3.47%（95%CI：1.19%-5.74%）respectively.According to age groups,PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ had the highest correlation in the age group <60 years old when Lag6,with 8.27%（95%CI：-0.86%-17.41%） and 4.17%（95% CI：-1.04%-9.38%） respectively,while they had the highest correlation in the age group ≥60 years old when Lag4 and Lag0,with 2.85%（95%CI：1.36%-4.34%） and 4.67%（95%CI：2.08%-7.25%）respectively. Conclusions The short-term exposure of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ is associated with the death of respiratory disease among residents in Karamay City,and has a lagging effect,which has a greater association with the death of women.PM_2.5 has a longer lag time in the risk of death for people aged <60 years old,and PM₁₀ has a significant impact on the risk of death among people aged ≥ 60 years old.

Key words: Atmospheric particulate matter, Respiratory disease, Poisson generalized linear model