2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物PM2.5对人群死因影响的时间序列分析

职业与健康 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 504-508.

2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物PM_2.5对人群死因影响的时间序列分析

陈荟栩¹, 孔莉², 李世香², 肖虹², 赵继民², 包名家²

1.佳木斯大学公共卫生学院,黑龙江佳木斯 154000;
2.佳木斯市疾病预防控制中心办公室,黑龙江佳木斯 154000

收稿日期:2023-06-29 修回日期:2023-07-03 出版日期:2024-02-15 发布日期:2026-03-12
通信作者: 包名家,主任技师,E-mail：cmubmj@163.com
作者简介:陈荟栩,女,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为环境与健康。

Time series analysis of the influence of air pollutant PM_2.5 on the cause of death in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021

CHEN Huixu¹, KONG Li², LI Shixiang², XIAO Hong², ZHAO Jimin², BAO Mingjia²

1. School of Public Health, Jiamusi University, Jiamusi Heilongjiang, 154000, China;
2. Department of Office, Jiamusi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiamusi Heilongjiang, 154000, China

Received:2023-06-29 Revised:2023-07-03 Online:2024-02-15 Published:2026-03-12
Contact: BAO Mingjia,Chief technician,E-mail：cmubmj@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物细颗粒物（fine particulate matters,PM_2.5）对不同死因的影响。方法利用2015—2021年死因监测数据、气象数据和大气污染物监测数据,采用泊松广义相加模型,控制气象因素、时间趋势和其他污染物等混杂因素影响,分析PM_2.5暴露对人群死亡风险的影响。结果 2015—2021年佳木斯市总死亡人数为108 800人,PM_2.5年均浓度为29.910 μg/m³。PM_2.5浓度变化与各疾病死亡均为正相关关系（均P<0.05）。PM_2.5浓度变化对疾病死亡风险影响存在滞后性且累积滞后5日对总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡影响效应最大,超额危险度（excess risk,ER）值分别为0.053%（95%CI：0.021~0.086）和0.078%（95%CI：0.035~0.120）,滞后2日浓度对呼吸系统疾病死亡影响效应最大,ER值为0.079%（95%CI：0.004~0.154）。男性和≥65的老年人群更为敏感,ER值分别为0.061%（95%CI：0.024~0.099）和0.054%（95%CI：0.024~0.085）。PM_2.5浓度升高1 μg/m³,总死亡风险、循环系统疾病死亡风险、呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.050%（95%CI：0.020~0.090）、0.080%（95%CI：0.040~0.120）、0.080%（95%CI：0.010~0.150）。结论 2015—2021年佳木斯市大气中PM_2.5暴露与佳木斯市人群死亡风险增加密切相关,尤其是对男性和老年人群危害更加显著。

关键词: PM_2.5, 死因监测, 广义相加模型, 时间序列分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the influence of PM_2.5 on different causes of death in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021. Methods The cause of death monitoring data,meteorological data and air pollutant monitoring data from 2015 to 2021 were collected,the Poisson generalized addition model was used to control the influence of confounding factors such as meteorological factors,time trend and other pollutants,and to analyze the influence of PM_2.5 exposure on population mortality risk. Results From 2015 to 2021,the total number of deaths in Jiamusi City was 108 800,and the average annual concentration of PM_2.5 was 29.910 μg/m³. There was a positive correlation between PM_2.5 concentration and death of all diseases（all P<0.05）. The change of PM_2.5 concentration had a lag effect on the risk of death from diseases,and the cumulative lag of 5 days had the greatest effect on total death and death from circulatory diseases,with ER values of 0.053%（95%CI：0.021-0.086） and 0.078%（95%CI：0.035-0.120）,respectively. The 2-day lag concentration had the greatest effect on death from respiratory diseases,with ER value of 0.079%（95%CI：0.004-0.154）. Men and older adults ≥65 were more sensitive,with ER values of 0.061%（95%CI：0.024-0.099） and 0.054%（95%CI：0.024-0.085）,respectively. The pollutant model showed that when PM_2.5 concentration increased by 1μg/m³,the risk of total death,the risk of death from circulatory diseases,and the risk of death from respiratory diseases increased by 0.050%（95%CI：0.020-0.090）,0.080%（95%CI：0.040-0.120） and 0.080%（95%CI：0.010-0.015）. Conclusion The exposure of PM_2.5 in the atmosphere in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021 is closely related to the increased risk of death of the population in Jiamusi City,especially for men and the elderly population.

Key words: Fine particulate matters, Cause of death monitoring, Generalized additive model, Time series analysis

中图分类号:

R181.3⁺4

陈荟栩, 孔莉, 李世香, 肖虹, 赵继民, 包名家. 2015—2021年佳木斯市大气污染物PM_2.5对人群死因影响的时间序列分析. [J]职业与健康, 2024, 40(4): 504-508.

CHEN Huixu, KONG Li, LI Shixiang, XIAO Hong, ZHAO Jimin, BAO Mingjia. Time series analysis of the influence of air pollutant PM_2.5 on the cause of death in Jiamusi City from 2015 to 2021. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2024, 40(4): 504-508.

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