工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患风险预测模型的范围综述

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (21): 3002-3007.

工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患风险预测模型的范围综述

卢俊玲¹, 田文艳^2a, 王田¹, 车朝阳¹, 庞超远^2b

1.甘肃中医药大学护理学院,甘肃兰州 730050;
2.联勤保障部队第九四〇医院 a 护理部, b 颌面外科,甘肃兰州 730050

收稿日期:2025-02-09 修回日期:2025-02-18 发布日期:2025-12-15
通信作者: 田文艳,副主任护师,E-mail：tianwy2021@163.com
作者简介:卢俊玲,女,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为护理管理。
基金资助:
甘肃省科技计划项目（21CX6ZA119）

Risk prediction models for work-related musculoskeletal disorders：A scoping review

LU Junling¹, TIAN Wenyan^2a, WANG Tian¹, CHE Chaoyang¹, PANG Chaoyuan^2b

1. School of Nursing,Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China;
2. a Nursing Department,b Maxillofacial Department,No. 940 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China

Received:2025-02-09 Revised:2025-02-18 Published:2025-12-15
Contact: TIAN Wenyan,Deputy chief nurse,E-mail：tianwy2021@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的对国内外工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患风险预测模型的研究进行范围综述。方法系统检索中英文数据库,检索时限为建库至2024年8月20日。由2名研究者根据预测模型研究系统评价的关键评估和数据提取清单（critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies,CHARMS）独立筛选、提取数据,并以预测模型偏倚风险评价工具（prediction model risk of bias assessment tool,PROBAST）评估模型偏倚和适用性。结果最终纳入13篇文献,研究对象护士较多,模型构建方法多数为logistic回归模型,模型展示以列线图可视化展示为主,出现频次最高的3项预测因子为工龄、身体姿势和位置及重复动作。结论现有工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患预测模型均未完全满足模型质量和适用性的要求。目前规范模型应采用个体预后与诊断预测模型研究报告标准（transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis,TRIPOD）规范等,可提高模型的质量和透明度。

关键词: 工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患, 预测模型, 风险评估, 范围综述

Abstract: Objective To conduct a scoping review of the research on risk prediction models of work-related musculoskeletal disorders at home and abroad. Methods The database was systematically searched in both English and Chinese from its inception to August 20,2024. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data according to the critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies(CHARMS) checklist,and assessed model bias and applicability with the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST). Results A total of 13 papers were included,most of the research subjects were nurses,most of the model construction methods were logistic regression models,the model display was mainly based on the visual display of nomograms,and the three predictors with the highest frequency were length of service,posture and position,and repetitive action. Conclusion None of the existing prediction models for work-related musculoskeletal disorders fully meet the requirements of model quality and applicability. At present,the standard model should adopt the specifications,such as transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis(TRIPOD),which can improve the quality and transparency of the model.

Key words: Work-related musculoskeletal disorders, Predictive models, Risk assessment, Scoping review

中图分类号:

R181.2

卢俊玲, 田文艳, 王田, 车朝阳, 庞超远. 工作相关性肌肉骨骼疾患风险预测模型的范围综述. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(21): 3002-3007.

LU Junling, TIAN Wenyan, WANG Tian, CHE Chaoyang, PANG Chaoyuan. Risk prediction models for work-related musculoskeletal disorders：A scoping review. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(21): 3002-3007.

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