关键词: 死因监测, 死亡率, 预期寿命, 早死概率, 线性回归, 减寿分析

Abstract:

Objective Based on the mortality surveillance data of the permanent population in Baoji City from 2020 to 2024，this study aims to calculate the regression trend on changes in resident mortality and years of life lost（YLL） indicators to identify major health issues and propose further prevention and control measures. Methods Collect mortality surveillance data of the entire population in Baoji City from 2020 to 2024，and analyze relevant indicators such as crude mortality rate，standardized mortality rate，annual percent change（APC），linear regression trends，composition of major disease-specific deaths，ranking of causes of death， premature mortality probability of four major chronic diseases，average life expectancy，years of life expectancy lost，and potential years of life lost（PYLL） for leading causes of death. Results The reported crude mortality rates in Baoji City from 2020 to 2024 were 660.14/100 000，778.21/100 000，841.92/100 000，916.93/100 000，and 808.65/100 000，respectively. Annual mortality rates were significantly higher in males than females（all P<0.05）. Regression analysis revealed increasing trends in mortality rates for lung cancer，gastric cancer，colorectal and anal cancer，pancreatic cancer，accidental falls，and accidental poisoning，with pancreatic cancer and accidental falls showing the fastest crude mortality rate increases（APC=16.77%，13.31%，both P<0.05）. Chronic diseases dominated the three major categories of deaths，accounting for over 90% of cases. The top five causes of death were heart disease，cerebrovascular disease，malignant tumors，respiratory diseases，and injury/poisoning，collectively constituting 89.57%-93.45% of total deaths. The average life expectancy ranged from 78.14 to 80.39 years，and the premature mortality probability of major chronic diseases was 12.99%-14.34%. Malignant tumors ranked first in PYLL rate（6.92‰-7.96‰），while heart disease had the greatest impact on life expectancy loss（4.58-5.73 years）. No statistically significant differences were observed in average PYLL and years of life expectancy lost across each type of disease in each year（F=0.075，0.016，both P>0.05）. Conclusion The change in the mortality rate of residents in Baoji City from 2020 to 2024 was stable. Heart disease，cerebrovascular disease，malignant tumors，injury poisoning and respiratory diseases were still the main causes of death，and the resulting loss of life expectancy was serious.

Key words: Cause of death surveillance, Mortality, Life expectancy, Probability of premature death, Linear regression, Life loss analysis