基于CHARLS数据的我国老年人主观预期寿命及影响因素研究

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 1502-1507.

基于CHARLS数据的我国老年人主观预期寿命及影响因素研究

田柳丹^a, 伍红艳^a,b, 杨星^a,b, 余江霞^b, 李星辰^b, 荣艺^a

贵州医科大学 a 公共卫生与健康学院环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室,b 医药卫生管理学院,贵州贵阳 561113

收稿日期:2024-08-15 修回日期:2024-08-27 发布日期:2025-12-12
通信作者: 伍红艳,教授,E-mail：why376570155@126.com
作者简介:田柳丹,女,在读硕士研究生,研究方向为流行病与卫生统计学。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（71463007,81760613）; 2022年度贵州医科大学医药经济管理研究中心课题（GMUMEM 2022-A03）

Research on subjective life expectancy and influencing factors of the elderly in China based on CHARLS data

TIAN Liudan^a, WU Hongyan^a,b, YANG Xing^a,b, YU Jiangxi^b, LI Xingchen^b, RONG Yi^a

a Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education of Environmental Pollution and Disease Monitoring, School of Public Health and Health, b School of Medicine and Health Management, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, Guizhou 561113, China

Received:2024-08-15 Revised:2024-08-27 Published:2025-12-12
Contact: WU Hongyan,Professor,E-mail：why376570155@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解我国≥60 岁老年人对个人寿命的主观估计情况及影响因素,为个人、社会及决策部门有效提升预期寿命提供参考。方法选取2013、2015和2018 年中国健康与养老追踪调查（China health and retirement longitudinal study,CHARLS）中≥60 岁的个体作为研究对象,采用固定效应有序logit模型对我国≥60 岁老年人主观预期寿命（subjective life expectancy,SLE）及其影响因素进行分析,并分析不同性别老年人之间的异质性。结果研究共纳入2 987位≥60 岁老年人。从总体来看,从2013年到2018年,受访者SLE为“简直一定”、“很有可能”占比下降,其中“简直一定”下降幅度更大,由22.60%下降为10.91%;SLE为“几乎不可能”和“不太可能”占比呈现上升趋势,其中“几乎不可能”上升幅度较大,由13.83%增长到23.97%;“有可能”占比虽有所下降但总体趋势仍是上升。患慢性病、过去1年因病住院、抑郁、自评健康状况差的老年人其SLE更低;参加基本医保、吸烟、父母健在人数为1人、参与社交活动的老年人其SLE更高。结论从社会、家庭及个人层面都应在制度保障、家庭照护等方面加强对老年人群体的关怀,通过满足老年人身体及心理健康的需求,以达到提高老年人预期寿命的目的。

关键词: 主观预期寿命, 固定效应有序logit模型, 影响因素, 面板数据, 老年人

Abstract: Objective To understand the subjective estimates of life expectancy of the elderly over 60 years old in China and its influencing factors,so as to provide reference for individuals,society,and decision-making departments to effectively improve life expectancy. Methods Individuals aged 60 and above of the China health and retirement longitudinal study（CHARLS） in 2013, 2 015,and 2018 were selected to analyze the subjective life expectancy（SLE） and its influencing factors of the elderly in China by a fixed-effects ordered logit model,and analyzed the heterogeneity between elderly people of different genders. Results A total of 2987 elderly people were included in the study. Overall,from 2013 to 2018,the proportion of "virtually certain" and "very likely" of SLE declined,with "virtually certain" declining even more,from 22.60% to 10.91%. The proportion of "almost impossible" and "unlikely" of SLE showed an upward trend,with "almost impossible" showing a larger increase from 13.83% to 23.97%. Although the proportion of "likely" had decreased,the overall trend was still on the rise. The SLE was lower for older persons with chronic diseases,hospitalization due to illness in the past year,depression,and poor self-assessed health,and higher for those who were covered by basic health insurance,smoked,had one living parent,and participated in social activities. Conclusion It is suggested that the care for the elderly should be strengthened at the social,family and individual levels. By meeting the physical and mental health needs of the elderly,the goal of improving their life expectancy can be achieved.

Key words: Subjective life expectancy, Fixed-effects ordered logit models, Influencing factors, Panel data, Elderly

田柳丹, 伍红艳, 杨星, 余江霞, 李星辰, 荣艺. 基于CHARLS数据的我国老年人主观预期寿命及影响因素研究. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(11): 1502-1507.

TIAN Liudan, WU Hongyan, YANG Xing, YU Jiangxi, LI Xingchen, RONG Yi. Research on subjective life expectancy and influencing factors of the elderly in China based on CHARLS data. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(11): 1502-1507.

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