2014—2023年南通市法定传染病流行趋势分析

职业与健康 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (16): 2240-2244.

2014—2023年南通市法定传染病流行趋势分析

苗峻峰, 张吴宏, 周洁, 赵恩慧, 魏叶

南通市疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制科,江苏南通 226000

收稿日期:2024-12-28 修回日期:2025-01-14 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-12-13
通信作者: 魏叶,副主任医师,E-mail：ntcdclw@163.com
作者简介:苗峻峰,男,医师,主要从事急性传染病防制工作。

Analysis on epidemic trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2004 to 2023

MIAO Junfeng, ZHANG Wuhong, ZHOU Jie, ZHAO Enhui, WEI Ye

Acute Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Department,Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nantong,Jiangsu 226000,China

Received:2024-12-28 Revised:2025-01-14 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-12-13
Contact: WEI Ye,Associate chief physician,E-mail：ntcdclw@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析南通市法定报告传染病的流行特征,探讨其变化趋势,为制定防控措施提供有效依据。方法收集2014—2023年南通市法定传染病的报告信息,利用统计软件对其进行描述分析,运用Joinpoint回归模型分析其变化趋势。结果 2014—2023年南通市累计报告法定传染病甲乙丙3类267 216例,年均粗发病率359.61/10万;死亡人数453例,死亡率0.61/10万,报告发病数前5位的是手足口病（75 375例）、流行性感冒（46 051例）、梅毒（31 644例）、肺结核（23 502例）和乙肝（13 482例）。南通市法定传染病发病率2014—2021年呈现下降趋势（APC=-7.663,t=-1.548,P>0.05）,2021—2023年呈快速上升趋势（APC=137.281,t=2.743,P<0.05）,男性年均发病率总体高于女性年均发病率（P<0.05）。各年龄组平均报告发病率整体为高升快降长拖尾,0~<3岁呈现快速上升趋势（APC=31.609,t=1.568,P>0.05）;3~<10岁呈快速下降趋势（APC=-29.896,t=-5.485,P<0.05）;10~<45岁呈现低位缓慢下降趋势（APC=-2.808,t=-2.149,P<0.05）;45~≥85岁呈现低位缓慢上升现象（APC=2.952,t=3.854,P<0.05）。季节指数呈现双峰分布,夏冬高,春秋低,6月份最高为1.40。结论近年来南通市传染病的发病率有上升趋势,应针对发病率较高的手足口、肺结核等和增长速度快的如流感、梅毒等传染病开展重点防控,加强<10岁儿童人群疫苗接种,做好宣传教育,整治乡村环境,完善疫情防控工作。

关键词: 法定报告传染病, 流行趋势, Joinpoint回归分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City,provide effective evidence for formulating prevention and control measures. Methods The data on notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2014 to 2023 were collected and analyzed using descriptive statistical software. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of change. Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 267 216 cases of Class A,B,C of notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Nantong City,with an average annual crude incidence rate of 359.61/100 000. There were a total of 453 reported deaths,with a mortality rate of 0.61/100 000. The top five reported infectious diseases by incidence were hand,foot and mouth disease（75 375 cases）,influenza（46 051 cases）,syphilis（31 644 cases）,tuberculosis（23 502 cases） and hepatitis B （13 482 cases）. The incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City showed a downward trend from 2014 to 2021（APC=-7.663,t=-1.548,P>0.05）,and a rapid upward trend from 2021 to 2023（APC=137.281,t=2.743,P<0.05）. The average annual incidence rate of men was generally higher than that of women（P<0.05）. The average incidence rate of all age groups showed a "high rise and fast fall with a long tail",and the average incidence rate of 0-<3 years old age group showed a rapid increase（APC=31.609,t=1.568,P>0.05）,3-<10 years old age group showed a rapid decrease（APC=-29.896,t=-5.485,P<0.05）,10-<45 years old age group showed a low and slow downward trend（APC=-2.8108,t=-2.149,P<0.05）,and 45-≥85 years old age group showed a low and slow increase trend（APC=2.952,t=3.854,P<0.05）. The seasonal index exhibited a bimodal distribution,with peaks in summer and winter and lows in spring and autumn,with a peak of 1.40 in June. Conclusion In recent years,the infectious diseases in Nantong City has a rising trend,and it is necessary to carry out key prevention and control measures on infectious diseases with high incidence rate,such as hand-foot-and-mouth disease and tuberculosis,as well as infectious diseases with rapid growth,such as influenza and syphilis,strengthen the vaccination of children <10 years old,enhance publicity and education,rectify the rural environment,and improve the epidemic prevention and control work.

Key words: Notifiable infectious diseases, Epidemic trends, Joinpoint regression analysis

中图分类号:

R181.3

苗峻峰, 张吴宏, 周洁, 赵恩慧, 魏叶. 2014—2023年南通市法定传染病流行趋势分析. [J]职业与健康, 2025, 41(16): 2240-2244.

MIAO Junfeng, ZHANG Wuhong, ZHOU Jie, ZHAO Enhui, WEI Ye. Analysis on epidemic trend of notifiable infectious diseases in Nantong City from 2004 to 2023. [J]OCCUPATION AND HEALTH, 2025, 41(16): 2240-2244.

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